Malaga vs Real Sociedad prediction & stats
Malaga stats & fixtures · Real Sociedad stats & fixtures
Malaga take on Real Sociedad in La Liga on 18 October 2026. The Ghost makes Real Sociedad favourites at 38%, with the draw at 30%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 14.1%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 53%.
Malaga vs Real Sociedad prediction
- 33%Malaga fair odds 3.05
- 30%Draw fair odds 3.39
- 38%Real Sociedad fair odds 2.65
Most likely score 1-1 (14.1%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.13 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 3.96 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12% | 8.67 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 9% | 10.70 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26% | 3.82 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.88 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 75% | 1.34 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 88% | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 53% | 1.88 |
| Both teams to score: No | 47% | 2.14 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.1
Malaga 5.5 · Real Sociedad 4.6
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 9.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 10.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 11.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 12.5 | 23% | 77% |
Expected cards: 5.1
Malaga 2.6 · Real Sociedad 2.5
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 4.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 5.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 6.5 | 26% | 74% |
| 7.5 | 15% | 85% |
Expected shots on target: 8.9
Malaga 4.0 · Real Sociedad 5.0
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 7.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 8.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 9.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 10.5 | 30% | 70% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (382 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 14.1%
- 0–0 9.3%
- 0–1 8.8%
- 1–2 8.5%
- 1–0 8.0%
- 2–1 7.8%
- 0–2 6.9%
- 2–0 5.9%
Team news & lineups
Malaga
- 10 David Larrubia Midfielder
- 1 Alfonso Herrero Goalkeeper
- 15 Ángel Recio Defender
- 31 Rafita Defender
- 22 Dani Lorenzo Midfielder
- 9 Chupe Attacker
- 11 Joaquín Muñoz Midfielder
- 18 Pablo Martínez Midfielder
- 14 Rafa Rodríguez Midfielder
- 12 J. Salinas Defender
- 3 Puga Defender
Real Sociedad
- 17 Sergio Gómez Defender
- 24 L. Sučić Attacker
- 11 G. Guedes Midfielder
- 6 J. Martin Defender
- 21 Y. Herrera Midfielder
- 19 M. Sarr Defender
- 10 Mikel Oyarzabal Attacker
- 12 J. Ochieng Midfielder
- 18 Carlos Soler Midfielder
- 13 Unai Marrero Goalkeeper
- 4 J. Gorrotxategi Midfielder
Out and doubtful
- A. Ochoa Malaga Out — Knee Injury
- J. Lobete Malaga Out — Knee Injury
- L. Beitia Real Sociedad Out — Ankle Injury
- P. Marin Real Sociedad Out — Red Card
- D. Murillo Malaga Out — Knee Injury
- J. Cajuste Malaga Out — Injury
- J. Cruz Malaga Out — Injury
- M. Diarra Malaga Out — Calf Injury
- A. Odriozola Real Sociedad Out — Knee Injury
- J. Aramburu Real Sociedad Out — Muscle Injury
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
Malaga at home
1–8–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.5 per game
- Conceded
- 1.5 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 6.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.7 per game
27% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Real Sociedad away
4–1–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 2.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- Corners
- 5.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.8 per game
29% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home clean sheet | 27% | 3.76 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 33% | 3.05 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 62% | 1.61 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 62% | 1.61 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 15% | 6.83 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 82% | 1.22 |
| Away clean sheet | 29% | 3.39 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 35% | 2.89 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 71% | 1.42 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 85% | 1.17 |
| Home/Away double chance | 70% | 1.42 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 67% | 1.49 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 67% | 1.49 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 13% | 7.94 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 73% | 1.36 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 38% | 2.65 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 38% | 2.61 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 18% | 5.62 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 15% | 6.72 |