Alverca vs Arouca prediction & stats
Alverca take on Arouca in the Primeira Liga on 24 October 2026. The Ghost makes Alverca favourites at 46%, with the draw at 27%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 13.0%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 57%.
Alverca vs Arouca prediction
- 46%Alverca fair odds 2.18
- 27%Draw fair odds 3.67
- 27%Arouca fair odds 3.72
Most likely score 1-1 (13.0%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.28 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.33 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.77 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 8% | 13.11 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22% | 4.52 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.10 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 85% | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 57% | 1.77 |
| Both teams to score: No | 43% | 2.30 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 9.4
Alverca 5.9 · Arouca 3.5
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 8.5 | 58% | 42% |
| 9.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 10.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 11.5 | 25% | 75% |
Expected cards: 5.0
Alverca 2.3 · Arouca 2.7
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 86% | 14% |
| 3.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 4.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 5.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 6.5 | 24% | 76% |
Expected shots on target: 7.8
Alverca 4.2 · Arouca 3.7
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 6.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 7.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 8.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 9.5 | 27% | 73% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (306 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.0%
- 2–1 9.6%
- 1–0 8.6%
- 2–0 8.0%
- 0–0 7.6%
- 1–2 6.9%
- 0–1 5.9%
- 2–2 5.4%
Team news & lineups
Alverca
- 22 Figueiredo Attacker
- 31 Matheus Mendes Goalkeeper
- 12 I. James Defender
- 55 Francisco Chissumba Midfielder
- 10 Chiquinho Attacker
- 21 Sergi Gómez Defender
- 35 Rayan Midfielder
- 14 S. Baseya Defender
- 6 D. Gui Midfielder
- 19 D. Camara Attacker
- 20 Diogo Filipe Spencer Marques Midfielder
Arouca
- 6 E. van Ee Midfielder
- 3 José Fontán Defender
- 19 A. Trezza Midfielder
- 17 Barbero Attacker
- 12 I. de Arruabarrena Goalkeeper
- 28 Tiago Esgaio Defender
- 18 O. Lebedenko Defender
- 8 T. Fukui Midfielder
- 7 N. Djouahra Midfielder
- 15 Javi Sánchez Defender
- 10 Pablo Gozálbez Midfielder
Form guide
Alverca at home
6–3–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.6 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 5.9 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.1 per game
9% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Arouca away
3–4–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.9 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- Corners
- 2.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.2 per game
Alverca vs Arouca head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca v Arouca | 2–1 | |
| Arouca v Alverca | 1–0 |
Only 2 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 88% | 1.13 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 80% | 1.26 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 73% | 1.37 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 73% | 1.37 |
| Home/Away double chance | 73% | 1.37 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 69% | 1.44 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 54% | 1.85 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 54% | 1.85 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 47% | 2.11 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 46% | 2.18 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 33% | 3.02 |
| Home clean sheet | 31% | 3.25 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 27% | 3.72 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 24% | 4.15 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 21% | 4.69 |
| Away clean sheet | 20% | 4.91 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 12% | 8.52 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 12% | 8.59 |