Arouca vs Estrela match stats & report
1–0 Full time
Arouca beat Estrela 1–0 in the Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026. Expected goals finished 0.78–1.48. Estrela had 63% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Arouca 49%, the draw 26% and Estrela 25%.
Arouca vs Estrela match statistics
- 37% Ball possession 63%
- 0.78 Expected goals (xG) 1.48
- 7 Total shots 11
- 3 Shots on target 2
- 2 Shots off target 7
- 2 Blocked shots 2
- 5 Shots inside the box 6
- 5 Corners 6
- 10 Fouls 7
- 2 Offsides 3
- 5 Yellow cards 2
- 0 Red cards 0
- 344 Passes 579
- 2 Goalkeeper saves 2
Goals and cards
- 5' Goal Barbero (assist N. Djouahra) Arouca
- 45+4' Penalty missed I. Stoica Estrela
- 45+6' Yellow card Pablo Gozálbez Arouca
- 45+8' Yellow card Barbero Arouca
- 45+8' Yellow card A. Marcus Estrela
- 50' Yellow card M. Scholze Estrela
- 62' Yellow card Pedro Santos Arouca
- 81' Yellow card T. Fukui Arouca
- 88' Yellow card José Fontán Arouca
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 49%Arouca fair odds 2.03
- 26%Draw fair odds 3.90
- 25%Estrela fair odds 4.00
Most likely score 1-1 (12.1%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 2.93 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 18% | 5.66 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 15.46 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19% | 5.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 82% | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| Both teams to score: No | 41% | 2.45 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 9.1
Arouca 5.2 · Estrela 4.0
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 8.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 9.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 10.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 11.5 | 22% | 78% |
Expected cards: 5.4
Arouca 2.6 · Estrela 2.7
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 4.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 5.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 6.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 7.5 | 18% | 82% |
Expected shots on target: 8.1
Arouca 4.3 · Estrela 3.8
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 7.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 8.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 9.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 10.5 | 21% | 79% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (302 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 12.1%
- 2–1 9.9%
- 2–0 8.1%
- 1–0 7.9%
- 1–2 6.6%
- 0–0 6.5%
- 3–1 5.7%
- 2–2 5.6%
Team news & lineups
Arouca
Bench Mateo Flores , Mario Climent , Lee Hyun-Ju , B. Mansilla , F. Mayulu , Diogo Monteiro , D. Nandín , Pedro Santos , B. Popović , G. Rukavina , L. Shahar , J. Vinarčík
Estrela
Bench Bernardo Schappo , A. Chernev , Jefferson Encada , K. Höög Jansson , L. Mincarelli Davin , R. Muteba , T. Moustier , E. Pedro Vanga , Diogo Pinto , B. Souza , Alisson , H. Poniewas
Form guide
Arouca at home
7–1–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 4.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.9 per game
19% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Estrela away
2–3–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.5 per game
- Conceded
- 1.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- Corners
- 3.6 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.8 per game
15% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Arouca vs Estrela head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Arouca v Estrela | 1–0 | |
| Estrela v Arouca | 3–1 | |
| Arouca v Estrela | 1–0 | |
| Estrela v Arouca | 2–1 | |
| Arouca v Estrela | 0–0 | |
| Estrela v Arouca | 1–4 |
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home -1.5 handicap | 27% | 3.66 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 25% | 3.93 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 52% | 1.91 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 49% | 2.03 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 75% | 1.33 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 75% | 1.33 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 83% | 1.21 |
| Home/Away double chance | 74% | 1.35 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 89% | 1.12 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 34% | 2.95 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 73% | 1.38 |
| Home clean sheet | 30% | 3.33 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 51% | 1.97 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 12% | 8.16 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 25% | 4.00 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 11% | 9.21 |
| Away clean sheet | 17% | 5.76 |