Rio Ave vs Nacional match stats & report
3–2 Full time
Rio Ave beat Nacional 3–2 in the Primeira Liga on 11 October 2026. Expected goals finished 1.74–1.28. Rio Ave had 56% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Rio Ave 41%, the draw 28% and Nacional 31%.
Rio Ave vs Nacional match statistics
- 56% Ball possession 44%
- 1.74 Expected goals (xG) 1.28
- 11 Total shots 13
- 7 Shots on target 5
- 0 Shots off target 7
- 4 Blocked shots 1
- 6 Shots inside the box 9
- 8 Corners 8
- 7 Fouls 17
- 0 Offsides 3
- 2 Yellow cards 0
- 1 Red cards 0
- 424 Passes 316
- 3 Goalkeeper saves 3
Goals and cards
- 32' Goal N. Kader (assist Francisco Gonçalves) Nacional
- 39' Goal S. Clemmensen Rio Ave
- 50' Yellow card João Tomé Rio Ave
- 54' Red card João Tomé Rio Ave
- 57' Goal Diogo Bezerra (assist S. Clemmensen) Rio Ave
- 59' Goal N. Kader Nacional
- 72' Penalty scored J. Blesa Rio Ave
- 73' Yellow card J. Blesa Rio Ave
- 90+1' Yellow card R. Galčík Rio Ave
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 41%Rio Ave fair odds 2.41
- 28%Draw fair odds 3.60
- 31%Nacional fair odds 3.25
Most likely score 1-1 (13.2%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 1.29 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.91 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | 3.35 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 15% | 6.84 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 8% | 12.93 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22% | 4.49 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 85% | 1.17 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 57% | 1.75 |
| Both teams to score: No | 43% | 2.33 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.0
Rio Ave 5.4 · Nacional 4.7
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 9.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 10.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 11.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 12.5 | 23% | 77% |
Expected cards: 4.6
Rio Ave 2.3 · Nacional 2.3
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 4.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 5.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 6.5 | 19% | 81% |
Expected shots on target: 8.5
Rio Ave 4.1 · Nacional 4.3
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 7.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 8.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 9.5 | 35% | 65% |
| 10.5 | 24% | 76% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (302 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.2%
- 2–1 9.1%
- 1–0 8.1%
- 0–0 7.7%
- 1–2 7.6%
- 2–0 7.1%
- 0–1 6.5%
- 2–2 5.5%
Team news & lineups
Rio Ave
Bench Caike , R. Galčík , T. Medina , T. Nikitscher , F. Petrasso , Diogo Nascimento , A. Wenck , Ryan Guilherme , E. van der Gouw , D. Špikić , Tamble Monteiro , S. Garcia
Nacional
Bench Daniel Isai de la Cruz de la Cruz , Joel da Silva , João Gonçalves , A. Obando , F. Nava , Ivanildo Fernandes , M. Jensen , S. Gavriel , Miguel Baeza
Form guide
Rio Ave at home
3–4–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.6 per game
- Conceded
- 2.1 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 5.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.9 per game
29% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Nacional away
1–2–7 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.7 per game
- Conceded
- 1.6 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 4.1 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.1 per game
0% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Rio Ave vs Nacional head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Nacional v Rio Ave | 4–0 | |
| Rio Ave v Nacional | 1–1 | |
| Nacional v Rio Ave | 3–3 | |
| Rio Ave v Nacional | 2–1 | |
| Rio Ave v Nacional | 1–1 |
Only 5 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 14% | 7.36 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 31% | 3.25 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 36% | 2.77 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 14% | 7.18 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 59% | 1.71 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 19% | 5.27 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 72% | 1.39 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 59% | 1.71 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 78% | 1.29 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 44% | 2.27 |
| Home/Away double chance | 72% | 1.38 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 79% | 1.26 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 86% | 1.16 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 69% | 1.44 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 69% | 1.44 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 21% | 4.78 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 41% | 2.41 |
| Away clean sheet | 22% | 4.46 |
| Home clean sheet | 28% | 3.54 |