Utrecht vs Willem II match stats & report
3–1 Full time
Utrecht beat Willem II 3–1 in the Eredivisie on 11 October 2026. Expected goals finished 1.38–0.66. Utrecht had 58% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Utrecht 65%, the draw 20% and Willem II 16%.
Utrecht vs Willem II match statistics
- 58% Ball possession 42%
- 1.38 Expected goals (xG) 0.66
- 24 Total shots 9
- 6 Shots on target 2
- 10 Shots off target 5
- 8 Blocked shots 2
- 19 Shots inside the box 7
- 7 Corners 3
- 15 Fouls 13
- 0 Offsides 2
- 2 Yellow cards 0
- 0 Red cards 0
- 481 Passes 351
- 1 Goalkeeper saves 3
Goals and cards
- 45' Yellow card Y. Cathline Utrecht
- 53' Goal Y. Cathline (assist D. de Wit) Utrecht
- 60' Goal J. Slory (assist V. van Crooij) Willem II
- 75' Goal Y. Cathline (assist O. Agougil) Utrecht
- 80' Yellow card N. Panagiotou Utrecht
- 90+2' Goal Ángel Alarcón (assist A. Blake) Utrecht
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 65%Utrecht fair odds 1.55
- 20%Draw fair odds 5.06
- 16%Willem II fair odds 6.41
Most likely score 2-1 (10.3%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 2.20 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 27% | 3.72 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4% | 25.36 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13% | 7.78 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32% | 3.09 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 73% | 1.37 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 62% | 1.60 |
| Both teams to score: No | 38% | 2.66 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.5
Utrecht 6.4 · Willem II 4.1
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 9.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 10.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 11.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 12.5 | 27% | 73% |
Expected cards: 3.1
Utrecht 1.2 · Willem II 1.8
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 2.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 3.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 4.5 | 20% | 80% |
| 5.5 | 10% | 90% |
Expected shots on target: 10.7
Utrecht 7.3 · Willem II 3.4
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 9.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 10.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 11.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 12.5 | 29% | 71% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (304 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–1 10.3%
- 1–1 8.8%
- 2–0 8.8%
- 3–1 7.8%
- 3–0 6.6%
- 1–0 6.6%
- 2–2 5.2%
- 3–2 4.6%
Team news & lineups
Utrecht
Bench Ángel Alarcón , N. Amrabat , A. Blake , K. Gadellaa , P. Kloosterboer , J. Medić , G. Offerhaus , N. Ogidi Nwankwo , S. Padt , S. van Duijn , D. van den Berg
Willem II
Bench A. Et-Taïbi , E. Gürbüz , M. Lemmens , Jens Mathijsen , O. Martin , J. Schuurman , T. Verheydt , A. Zarrouk , K. de Leeuw , Per van Loon , W. van der Steen , A. Ciranni
Out and doubtful
- A. Engwanda Utrecht Out — Hamstring Injury
- A. Stepanov Utrecht Out — Ankle Injury
- V. Jensen Utrecht Out — Knee Injury
- K. Paredes Utrecht Out — Knee Injury
- M. Jonathans Utrecht Out — Knee Injury
- N. Ohio Utrecht Out — Knee Injury
- A. Culum Willem II Out — Foot Injury
- A. Lachkar Willem II Out — Groin Injury
- J. Hoogma Willem II Out — Knee Injury
- K. Boogaard Willem II Out — Knock
- T. Didillon Hodl Willem II Out — Hamstring Injury
- O. Agougil Utrecht Doubtful — Health problems
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
Utrecht at home
4–1–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 2.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 4.7 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.7 per game
21% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Willem II away
0–1–4 in 5 matches
- Scored
- 1.2 per game
- Conceded
- 3.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 5
- Corners
- 2.6 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.6 per game
33% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 5 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Utrecht vs Willem II head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Willem II v Utrecht | 2–3 | |
| Utrecht v Willem II | 3–2 |
Only 2 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home -1.5 handicap | 42% | 2.38 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 65% | 1.55 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 68% | 1.46 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 42% | 2.41 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 84% | 1.18 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 68% | 1.47 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 94% | 1.07 |
| Home/Away double chance | 80% | 1.25 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 84% | 1.18 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 58% | 1.73 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 11% | 9.45 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 35% | 2.83 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 31% | 3.21 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 35% | 2.83 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 16% | 6.41 |
| Home clean sheet | 32% | 3.11 |
| Away clean sheet | 9% | 10.72 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 6% | 15.83 |