Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen match stats & report
1–1 Full time
Ajax stats & fixtures · NEC Nijmegen stats & fixtures
Ajax drew with NEC Nijmegen 1–1 in the Eredivisie on 10 October 2026. Expected goals finished 1.86–1.11. Ajax had 61% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Ajax 54%, the draw 22% and NEC Nijmegen 24%.
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen match statistics
- 61% Ball possession 39%
- 1.86 Expected goals (xG) 1.11
- 18 Total shots 8
- 5 Shots on target 2
- 8 Shots off target 4
- 5 Blocked shots 2
- 13 Shots inside the box 5
- 4 Corners 4
- 8 Fouls 13
- 1 Offsides 5
- 2 Yellow cards 2
- 0 Red cards 0
- 480 Passes 302
- 1 Goalkeeper saves 4
Goals and cards
- 7' Goal Tolu Arokodare (assist Jorthy Mokio) Ajax
- 17' Yellow card Jorthy Mokio Ajax
- 19' Penalty scored T. Chery NEC Nijmegen
- 33' Yellow card B. Linssen NEC Nijmegen
- 54' Yellow card Gabriel Brás NEC Nijmegen
- 67' Yellow card Abdellah Ouazane Ajax
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 54%Ajax fair odds 1.84
- 22%Draw fair odds 4.60
- 24%NEC Nijmegen fair odds 4.18
Most likely score 2-1 (9.7%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 1.44 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 29% | 3.45 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4% | 26.92 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12% | 8.57 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30% | 3.29 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 68% | 1.47 |
| Both teams to score: No | 32% | 3.13 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.0
Ajax 4.9 · NEC Nijmegen 5.1
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 8.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 9.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 10.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 11.5 | 31% | 69% |
Expected cards: 3.6
Ajax 1.5 · NEC Nijmegen 2.1
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 87% | 13% |
| 2.5 | 69% | 31% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 4.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 5.5 | 16% | 84% |
Expected shots on target: 10.8
Ajax 6.0 · NEC Nijmegen 4.8
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 9.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 10.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 11.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 12.5 | 30% | 70% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (300 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–1 9.7%
- 1–1 9.2%
- 3–1 6.8%
- 2–0 6.7%
- 2–2 6.2%
- 1–2 6.0%
- 1–0 5.1%
- 3–2 4.9%
Team news & lineups
Ajax
Bench Y. Bissouma , S. Adingra , Davy Klaassen , Marcos Leonardo , Abdellah Ouazane , Maarten Paes , Dies Janse , Oliver Valaker Edvardsen , A. Bouwman , C. Setford , R. Bounida , Jofre Torrents
NEC Nijmegen
Bench W. Willumsson , A. Tahaui , N. Polster , Y. Moslih , Jamiro Monteiro , A. Kaplan , I. Hansen-Aaroen , Freek Entius , C. Bischoff , M. Bakker , Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar
Out and doubtful
- A. Bouwman Ajax Out — Knock
- Caio Henrique Ajax Out — Thigh Injury
- D. Blind Ajax Out — Back Injury
- K. Dolberg Ajax Out — Knee Injury
- S. Berghuis Ajax Out — Injury
- A. Kaplan NEC Nijmegen Out — Knee Injury
- B. Nuytinck NEC Nijmegen Out — Ankle Injury
- P. Sandler NEC Nijmegen Out — Injury
- A. Gaaei Ajax Out — Injury
- S. Adingra Ajax Out — Foot Injury
- D. Fonville NEC Nijmegen Out — Ankle Injury
- D. Geiger NEC Nijmegen Out — Inactive
- E. Mor NEC Nijmegen Out — Groin Injury
- G. Crettaz NEC Nijmegen Out — Hamstring Injury
- K. Sierhuis NEC Nijmegen Out — Inactive
- C. Bischoff NEC Nijmegen Doubtful — Hamstring Injury
- Kevin Kers NEC Nijmegen Doubtful — Injury
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
Ajax at home
6–3–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.5 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 7.8 per game
- Shots on target
- 9.0 per game
8% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
NEC Nijmegen away
2–3–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.2 per game
- Conceded
- 2.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 3.6 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.6 per game
25% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Ajax vs NEC Nijmegen head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Ajax v NEC Nijmegen | 1–1 | |
| NEC Nijmegen v Ajax | 2–2 | |
| Ajax v NEC Nijmegen | 0–3 | |
| NEC Nijmegen v Ajax | 1–2 | |
| Ajax v NEC Nijmegen | 2–2 | |
| NEC Nijmegen v Ajax | 1–2 |
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away clean sheet | 11% | 8.72 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 46% | 2.19 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 46% | 2.19 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 67% | 1.50 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 17% | 5.80 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 11% | 8.98 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 41% | 2.41 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 89% | 1.13 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 89% | 1.13 |
| Home/Away double chance | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 76% | 1.31 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 64% | 1.57 |
| Home clean sheet | 24% | 4.14 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 54% | 1.84 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 37% | 2.72 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 33% | 3.02 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 76% | 1.31 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 24% | 4.18 |