Volga Ulyanovsk vs Chertanovo Moscow prediction & stats

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Volga Ulyanovsk to score about 0.7 more and playing at home is worth roughly 25% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 5714 matches, with no market price to check against.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.00× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• A final. Not measured, so it does not move the numbers. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Volga Ulyanovsk has a new coach, A. Grishchenko, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Chertanovo Moscow has a new coach, Ilya Rodkin, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Volga Ulyanovsk attack scores 17% more than average, against Chertanovo Moscow defence, which lets in 11% fewer than average: 1.55 goals (an average side here: 1.49)
• Chertanovo Moscow attack scores 3% less than average, against Volga Ulyanovsk defence, which lets in 32% fewer than average: 0.97 goals (an average side here: 1.49)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Volga Ulyanovsk 1.64, Chertanovo Moscow 0.89.

Ratings from 112 matches for Volga Ulyanovsk and 93 for Chertanovo Moscow, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Chertanovo Moscow score 1.8 a game — 91st percentile in this competition.
• Volga Ulyanovsk score 0.9 a game — 10th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 3 of Volga Ulyanovsk’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 13.2%
2. 1–0 11.5%
3. 2–0 10.7%
4. 2–1 9.5%
5. 0–0 9.5%
6. 3–0 5.8%
7. 0–1 5.6%
8. 3–1 5.2%