Leningradets vs Ska-khabarovsk prediction & stats

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Ska-khabarovsk to score about 0.5 more.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.00× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• A final. Not measured, so it does not move the numbers. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Leningradets has a new coach, Aleksandr Shmarko, for its last 6 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Ska-khabarovsk has a new coach, Sergey Zhukov, for its last 6 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Leningradets attack scores about the average, against Ska-khabarovsk defence, which lets in 29% fewer than average: 1.05 goals (an average side here: 1.49)
• Ska-khabarovsk attack scores 19% more than average, against Leningradets defence, which lets in 20% fewer than average: 1.42 goals (an average side here: 1.49)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Leningradets 1.00, Ska-khabarovsk 1.47.

Ratings from 112 matches for Leningradets and 107 for Ska-khabarovsk, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Ska-khabarovsk win 10 corners a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Leningradets win 6 corners a game — 80th percentile in this competition.
• Ska-khabarovsk score 1.4 a game — 68th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 14.0%
2. 0–1 10.8%
3. 0–0 10.1%
4. 0–2 9.2%
5. 1–2 9.1%
6. 1–0 6.8%
7. 2–1 6.2%
8. 2–2 4.6%