Leon vs Toluca prediction & stats
Leon take on Toluca in Liga MX (Apertura - 14) on 24 October 2026. The Ghost makes Toluca favourites at 46%, with the draw at 26%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 12.1%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 60%.
Leon vs Toluca prediction
- 28%Leon fair odds 3.61
- 26%Draw fair odds 3.87
- 46%Toluca fair odds 2.15
Most likely score 1-1 (12.1%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 1.74 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | 2.86 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 18% | 5.46 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 15.91 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19% | 5.36 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42% | 2.36 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 65% | 1.54 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 60% | 1.65 |
| Both teams to score: No | 40% | 2.53 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.7
Leon 4.8 · Toluca 5.9
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 9.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 10.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 11.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 12.5 | 29% | 71% |
Expected cards: 4.1
Leon 2.0 · Toluca 2.1
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 4.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 5.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 6.5 | 13% | 87% |
Expected shots on target: 10.0
Leon 4.5 · Toluca 5.4
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 8.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 9.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 10.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 11.5 | 31% | 69% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (329 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 12.1%
- 1–2 9.7%
- 0–2 7.4%
- 0–1 7.3%
- 2–1 7.0%
- 0–0 6.3%
- 2–2 5.8%
- 1–3 5.4%
Team news & lineups
Leon
- 7 I. Moreno Defender
- 14 J. Romaña Defender
- 27 D. Cambindo Attacker
- 3 Juan José Guevara Possu Defender
- 29 J. Rodríguez Midfielder
- 203 J. Lara Midfielder
- 26 S. Reyes Defender
- 13 D. Arcila Midfielder
- 23 Ó. García Goalkeeper
- 18 E. Guerra Midfielder
- 20 R. Echeverría Midfielder
Toluca
- 26 Paulinho Attacker
- 6 F. Pereira Defender
- 9 A. Vega Midfielder
- 20 J. Gallardo Midfielder
- 11 Helinho Midfielder
- 5 F. Romero Midfielder
- 35 É. Gutiérrez Midfielder
- 8 N. Castro Midfielder
- 22 L. García Goalkeeper
- 4 B. Méndez Defender
- 16 F. Viñas Midfielder
Form guide
Leon at home
7–1–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.5 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 4.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.1 per game
29% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Toluca away
3–3–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.4 per game
- Conceded
- 1.5 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 5.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.0 per game
20% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Leon vs Toluca head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Toluca v Leon | 4–1 | |
| Leon v Toluca | 2–4 | |
| Leon v Toluca | 3–3 | |
| Toluca v Leon | 2–2 | |
| Toluca v Leon | 4–1 | |
| Leon v Toluca | 1–0 |
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 87% | 1.14 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 75% | 1.34 |
| Home/Away double chance | 74% | 1.35 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 72% | 1.38 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 72% | 1.38 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 72% | 1.38 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 54% | 1.87 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 54% | 1.87 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 51% | 1.96 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 46% | 2.15 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 37% | 2.71 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 28% | 3.61 |
| Away clean sheet | 28% | 3.61 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 25% | 3.97 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 24% | 4.10 |
| Home clean sheet | 18% | 5.51 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 14% | 7.11 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 13% | 7.99 |