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Tigres UANL vs Toluca match stats & report

3–2 Full time

Liga MX · Mexico · Apertura - 11 · Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León, San Nicolás de los Garza · Ref Daniel Quintero Huitron

Tigres UANL stats & fixtures · Toluca stats & fixtures

Tigres UANL beat Toluca 3–2 in Liga MX (Apertura - 11) on 10 October 2026. Expected goals finished 1.81–1.30. Toluca had 70% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Tigres UANL 34%, the draw 29% and Toluca 37%.

Tigres UANL vs Toluca match statistics

Tigres UANLToluca

Goals and cards

  1. 6' Goal J. Brunetta Tigres UANL
  2. 33' Yellow card A. Vega Toluca
  3. 37' Goal G. Martínez (assist E. Gómez) Tigres UANL
  4. 42' Goal Paulinho (assist B. García) Toluca
  5. 43' Yellow card B. García Toluca
  6. 45+4' Red card Toluca
  7. 54' Goal F. Viñas (assist Helinho) Toluca
  8. 60' Goal J. Brunetta (assist F. Gorriarán) Tigres UANL
  9. 90' Yellow card V. Loroña Tigres UANL
  10. 90+3' Yellow card F. Romero Toluca
  11. 90+3' Yellow card F. Pereira Toluca

The Ghost's pre-match prediction

Most likely score 1-1 (14.0%)

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

MarketGhostFair odds
Over 0.5 goals91%1.10
Over 1.5 goals75%1.34
Over 2.5 goals48%2.08
Over 3.5 goals26%3.82
Over 4.5 goals12%8.22
Under 0.5 goals9%11.13
Under 1.5 goals25%3.96
Under 2.5 goals52%1.93
Under 3.5 goals74%1.35
Under 4.5 goals88%1.14
Both teams to score: Yes54%1.85
Both teams to score: No46%2.18

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.4

Tigres UANL 5.6 · Toluca 4.7

Total cornersOverUnder
8.569%31%
9.558%42%
10.546%54%
11.535%65%
12.526%74%

Expected cards: 4.7

Tigres UANL 2.3 · Toluca 2.3

Total cardsOverUnder
2.583%17%
3.567%33%
4.549%51%
5.533%67%
6.520%80%

Expected shots on target: 9.0

Tigres UANL 4.6 · Toluca 4.5

Total shots on targetOverUnder
7.566%34%
8.554%46%
9.541%59%
10.530%70%
11.521%79%

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (316 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

  1. 1–1 14.0%
  2. 0–0 9.0%
  3. 1–2 8.4%
  4. 0–1 8.4%
  5. 2–1 8.0%
  6. 1–0 7.9%
  7. 0–2 6.7%
  8. 2–0 6.0%

Team news & lineups

Tigres UANL

Confirmed 4-2-3-1 M. Vucetich

Bench F. Rodríguez , D. Sánchez , J. Vigón , I. Aceves , R. Aguirre , J. Garza , O. Herrera , V. Loroña , R. Monreal , Simeone

Toluca

Confirmed 4-2-3-1 A. Mohamed

Bench F. Arce , D. Barbosa , J. Díaz , Luan , H. González , E. López , P. Pérez , S. Simón , F. Viñas , J. Angulo

Form guide

Tigres UANL at home

7–3–0 in 10 matches

Scored
2.2 per game
Conceded
0.8 per game
Clean sheets
4 / 10
Corners
5.4 per game
Shots on target
6.1 per game

27% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.

Toluca away

3–3–4 in 10 matches

Scored
1.4 per game
Conceded
1.5 per game
Clean sheets
3 / 10
Corners
5.3 per game
Shots on target
5.0 per game

20% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.

Tigres UANL vs Toluca head-to-head

DateMatchScore
Tigres UANL v Toluca 0–0
Toluca v Tigres UANL 2–1
Tigres UANL v Toluca 1–0
Toluca v Tigres UANL 3–4
Toluca v Tigres UANL 3–0
Tigres UANL v Toluca 1–1

The full Tigres UANL vs Toluca head-to-head record

Double chance, handicap & team goals

Market Ghost Fair odds
Home clean sheet 26% 3.78
Home +0.5 handicap 63% 1.59
Home/Draw double chance 63% 1.59
Home -0.5 handicap 34% 2.96
Home +1.5 handicap 83% 1.21
Away clean sheet 28% 3.53
Away +1.5 handicap 85% 1.18
Away +0.5 handicap 66% 1.51
Draw/Away double chance 66% 1.51
Home Over 0.5 team goals 72% 1.40
Home -1.5 handicap 15% 6.49
Home/Away double chance 71% 1.41
Away Over 0.5 team goals 74% 1.36
Home Over 1.5 team goals 36% 2.78
Away -0.5 handicap 37% 2.70
Away Over 1.5 team goals 38% 2.60
Away -1.5 handicap 17% 5.73
Home Over 2.5 team goals 13% 7.41
Away Over 2.5 team goals 15% 6.67