Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras prediction, stats & H2H
Vasco DA Gama stats & fixtures · Palmeiras stats & fixtures
Vasco DA Gama take on Palmeiras in the Copa Do Brasil (Semi-finals) on 8 November 2026. The Ghost makes Palmeiras favourites at 51%, with the draw at 27%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 13.1%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 53%.
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras prediction
The Ghost: Palmeiras to win, 51%
- 22%Vasco DA Gama fair odds 4.64
- 27%Draw fair odds 3.64
- 51%Palmeiras fair odds 1.96
Most likely score 1-1 (13.1%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Palmeiras to score about 0.6 more.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 11399 matches, with no market price to check against.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Vasco DA Gama
Attack 1.79 · Defence 0.57
Last five: LLWLL, scored 5, conceded 11
Palmeiras
Attack 2.26 · Defence 0.37
Last five: WDWLW, scored 5, conceded 1
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 6 meetings: Vasco DA Gama won 1, 0 drawn, Palmeiras won 5. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
- Palmeiras has a new coach, Abel Ferreira, for its last 8 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Vasco DA Gama attack scores 79% more than average, against Palmeiras defence, which lets in 63% fewer than average: 1.08 goals (an average side here: 1.62)
- Palmeiras attack scores 126% more than average, against Vasco DA Gama defence, which lets in 43% fewer than average: 1.58 goals (an average side here: 1.23)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Vasco DA Gama 1.01, Palmeiras 1.66.
Ratings from 176 matches for Vasco DA Gama and 175 for Palmeiras, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Vasco DA Gama score 1.6 a game — 76th percentile in this competition.
- Palmeiras have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.
- Vasco DA Gama have kept 5 clean sheets in 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 2.01 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | 3.59 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 13% | 7.57 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 8% | 11.82 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 24% | 4.17 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50% | 1.99 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 72% | 1.39 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 87% | 1.15 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 53% | 1.89 |
| Both teams to score: No | 47% | 2.13 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 11.8
Vasco DA Gama 7.0 · Palmeiras 4.7
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 10.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 11.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 12.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 13.5 | 30% | 70% |
Expected cards: 4.6
Vasco DA Gama 2.2 · Palmeiras 2.4
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 3.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 4.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 5.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 6.5 | 19% | 81% |
Expected shots on target: 6.9
Vasco DA Gama 3.2 · Palmeiras 3.7
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 4.5 | 80% | 20% |
| 5.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 6.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 7.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 8.5 | 26% | 74% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (875 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.1%
- 0–1 10.0%
- 1–2 9.6%
- 0–2 9.5%
- 0–0 8.5%
- 2–1 5.9%
- 1–0 5.5%
- 1–3 5.3%
Team news & lineups
Vasco DA Gama
- 22 A. Lescano Midfielder
- 1 Léo Jardim Goalkeeper
- 23 Thiago Mendes Midfielder
- 9 F. Colidio Midfielder
- 30 Robert Renan Defender
- 19 Bruno Duarte Attacker
- 5 S. Sosa Midfielder
- 4 A. Saldivia Defender
- 66 Cuiabano Defender
- 96 Paulo Henrique Defender
- 28 Adson Midfielder
Palmeiras
- 30 Lucas Evangelista Midfielder
- 2 A. Barboza Defender
- 1 Carlos Miguel Goalkeeper
- 11 J. Arias Midfielder
- 17 Marlon Freitas Midfielder
- 4 A. Giay Midfielder
- 15 G. Gomez Defender
- 26 Murilo Defender
- 22 J. Piquerez Midfielder
- 42 J. Lopez Midfielder
- 18 Mauricio Midfielder
Form guide
Vasco DA Gama at home
5–2–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- Corners
- 6.1 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.6 per game
19% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Palmeiras away
3–5–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.0 per game
- Conceded
- 0.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- Corners
- 4.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.6 per game
20% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Vasco DA Gama vs Palmeiras head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras v Vasco DA Gama | 1–0 | |
| Palmeiras v Vasco DA Gama | 4–1 | |
| Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras | 2–1 | |
| Palmeiras v Vasco DA Gama | 3–0 | |
| Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras | 0–1 | |
| Vasco DA Gama v Palmeiras | 0–1 |
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 92% | 1.09 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 81% | 1.24 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 78% | 1.27 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 78% | 1.27 |
| Home/Away double chance | 73% | 1.38 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 72% | 1.39 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 64% | 1.57 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 51% | 1.96 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 49% | 2.03 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 49% | 2.04 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 49% | 2.04 |
| Away clean sheet | 36% | 2.74 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 28% | 3.54 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 27% | 3.73 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 23% | 4.32 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 22% | 4.64 |
| Home clean sheet | 19% | 5.24 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 8% | 12.09 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 8% | 12.18 |