Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction, stats & H2H
Atletico-MG stats & fixtures · Gremio stats & fixtures
Atletico-MG take on Gremio in the Copa Do Brasil (Semi-finals) on 7 November 2026. The Ghost makes Atletico-MG favourites at 48%, with the draw at 28%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 13.5%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 53%.
Atletico-MG vs Gremio prediction
The Ghost: Atletico-MG to win, 48%
- 48%Atletico-MG fair odds 2.06
- 28%Draw fair odds 3.54
- 23%Gremio fair odds 4.29
Most likely score 1-1 (13.5%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Atletico-MG to score about 0.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 32% in this competition.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 11399 matches, with no market price to check against.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Atletico-MG
Attack 1.75 · Defence 0.50
Last five: LLLLW, scored 3, conceded 8
Gremio
Attack 1.78 · Defence 0.53
Last five: WWWLD, scored 8, conceded 5
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 6 meetings: Atletico-MG won 2, 0 drawn, Gremio won 4. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
- Gremio has a new coach, Renato Gaúcho, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Atletico-MG attack scores 75% more than average, against Gremio defence, which lets in 47% fewer than average: 1.52 goals (an average side here: 1.62)
- Gremio attack scores 78% more than average, against Atletico-MG defence, which lets in 50% fewer than average: 1.10 goals (an average side here: 1.23)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Atletico-MG 1.58, Gremio 1.04.
Ratings from 173 matches for Atletico-MG and 169 for Gremio, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Atletico-MG win 7.2 corners a game — 84th percentile in this competition.
- 5 of the last 6 meetings went over 2.5 goals.
- Atletico-MG score 1.7 a game — 79th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.06 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 3.74 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12% | 8.02 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 9% | 11.27 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25% | 4.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.94 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 88% | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 53% | 1.90 |
| Both teams to score: No | 47% | 2.12 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 11.7
Atletico-MG 7.4 · Gremio 4.2
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 10.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 11.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 12.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 13.5 | 30% | 70% |
Expected cards: 4.7
Atletico-MG 1.9 · Gremio 2.8
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 4.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 5.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 6.5 | 20% | 80% |
Expected shots on target: 7.5
Atletico-MG 5.2 · Gremio 2.2
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 6.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 7.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 8.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 9.5 | 23% | 77% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (875 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.5%
- 1–0 10.0%
- 2–1 9.5%
- 2–0 9.1%
- 0–0 8.9%
- 1–2 6.2%
- 0–1 6.0%
- 3–1 5.0%
Team news & lineups
Atletico-MG
- 1 Gabriel Delfim Goalkeeper
- 13 Lyanco Defender
- 6 R. Lodi Defender
- 21 A. Franco Midfielder
- 30 Victor Hugo Attacker
- 15 K. Castano Midfielder
- 8 Maycon Midfielder
- 11 Bernard Midfielder
- 40 Vitao Defender
- 28 Cuello Midfielder
- 2 Natanael Defender
Gremio
- 20 M. Villasanti Midfielder
- 9 F. Amuzu Midfielder
- 95 Carlos Vinicius Attacker
- 1 Weverton Goalkeeper
- 23 Marlon Defender
- 82 Wallace Defender
- 6 Gustavo Martins Defender
- 8 E. Noriega Midfielder
- 2 Fabian Balbuena Defender
- 18 Joao Pedro Defender
- 99 J. Enamorado Attacker
Form guide
Atletico-MG at home
7–2–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 0.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 7.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.6 per game
47% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Gremio away
1–3–6 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.5 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 4.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.5 per game
38% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Atletico-MG vs Gremio head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Gremio v Atletico-MG | 2–0 | |
| Atletico-MG v Gremio | 3–0 | |
| Gremio v Atletico-MG | 2–1 | |
| Atletico-MG v Gremio | 1–3 | |
| Gremio v Atletico-MG | 2–1 | |
| Atletico-MG v Gremio | 2–1 |
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 79% | 1.26 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 77% | 1.30 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 77% | 1.30 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 74% | 1.35 |
| Home/Away double chance | 72% | 1.39 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 64% | 1.55 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 52% | 1.94 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 52% | 1.94 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 48% | 2.06 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 47% | 2.13 |
| Home clean sheet | 36% | 2.82 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 28% | 3.61 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 26% | 3.84 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 23% | 4.29 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 21% | 4.73 |
| Away clean sheet | 21% | 4.85 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 9% | 10.93 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 9% | 11.51 |