AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction & stats
AC Milan take on Atalanta in Serie A on 18 October 2026. The Ghost makes AC Milan favourites at 44%, with the draw at 28%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 13.3%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 56%.
AC Milan vs Atalanta prediction
- 44%AC Milan fair odds 2.30
- 28%Draw fair odds 3.58
- 29%Atalanta fair odds 3.51
Most likely score 1-1 (13.3%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 92% | 1.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 1.96 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 3.48 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 14% | 7.23 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 8% | 12.38 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 23% | 4.31 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49% | 2.04 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 71% | 1.40 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 86% | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 56% | 1.79 |
| Both teams to score: No | 44% | 2.26 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 9.1
AC Milan 4.7 · Atalanta 4.4
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 8.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 9.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 10.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 11.5 | 22% | 78% |
Expected cards: 3.4
AC Milan 1.5 · Atalanta 1.9
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 3.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 4.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 5.5 | 13% | 87% |
Expected shots on target: 8.8
AC Milan 4.9 · Atalanta 3.9
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 7.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 8.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 9.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 10.5 | 28% | 72% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (384 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.3%
- 2–1 9.3%
- 1–0 8.7%
- 0–0 8.1%
- 2–0 7.7%
- 1–2 7.2%
- 0–1 6.4%
- 2–2 5.3%
Team news & lineups
AC Milan
- 31 S. Pavlović Defender
- 16 M. Maignan Goalkeeper
- 12 A. Rabiot Midfielder
- 5 K. De Winter Defender
- 9 Gonçalo Ramos Attacker
- 21 S. Chukwueze Midfielder
- 2 P. Estupiñán Midfielder
- 34 Mario Gila Defender
- 70 A. Cissè Attacker
- 33 D. Bartesaghi Midfielder
- 30 A. Jashari Midfielder
Atalanta
- 29 Marco Carnesecchi Goalkeeper
- 31 T. Kristensen Defender
- 13 Éderson Midfielder
- 17 Charles De Ketelaere Attacker
- 77 Davide Zappacosta Defender
- 16 R. Bellanova Defender
- 9 Gianluca Scamacca Attacker
- 23 Sead Kolašinac Defender
- 11 J. Rowe Attacker
- 47 Lorenzo Bernasconi Defender
- 70 G. Gaetano Midfielder
Out and doubtful
- A. Saelemaekers AC Milan Out — Ankle Injury
- G. Scalvini Atalanta Out — Thigh Injury
- I. Hien Atalanta Out — Muscle Injury
- O. Kossounou Atalanta Out — Thigh Injury
- M. Gabbia AC Milan Out — Thigh Injury
- P. Terracciano AC Milan Out — Inactive
- E. Elmas Atalanta Out — Red Card
- F. Kessie Atalanta Out — Calf Injury
- G. Raspadori Atalanta Doubtful — Thigh Injury
- K. Sulemana Atalanta Doubtful — Knee Injury
- R. Bellanova Atalanta Doubtful — Thigh Injury
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
AC Milan at home
4–2–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.3 per game
- Conceded
- 1.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 3.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.1 per game
31% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Atalanta away
4–2–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 4.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.1 per game
12% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
AC Milan vs Atalanta head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| AC Milan v Atalanta | 2–3 | |
| Atalanta v AC Milan | 1–1 | |
| AC Milan v Atalanta | 0–1 | |
| Atalanta v AC Milan | 2–1 | |
| AC Milan v Atalanta | 1–1 | |
| Atalanta v AC Milan | 3–2 |
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away -0.5 handicap | 29% | 3.51 |
| Away clean sheet | 22% | 4.55 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 56% | 1.77 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 12% | 8.03 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 56% | 1.77 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 34% | 2.98 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 78% | 1.29 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 12% | 8.33 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 70% | 1.44 |
| Home/Away double chance | 72% | 1.39 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 88% | 1.14 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 71% | 1.40 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 71% | 1.40 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 44% | 2.30 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 45% | 2.23 |
| Home clean sheet | 30% | 3.29 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 22% | 4.50 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 19% | 5.14 |