Arsenal vs Leeds match stats & report
2–1 Full time
Arsenal beat Leeds 2–1 in the Premier League on 10 October 2026. Expected goals finished 2.66–0.74. Arsenal had 58% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Arsenal 63%, the draw 24% and Leeds 13%.
Arsenal vs Leeds match statistics
- 58% Ball possession 42%
- 2.66 Expected goals (xG) 0.74
- 13 Total shots 11
- 6 Shots on target 5
- 4 Shots off target 3
- 3 Blocked shots 3
- 8 Shots inside the box 7
- 3 Corners 4
- 12 Fouls 20
- 7 Offsides 4
- 1 Yellow cards 4
- 0 Red cards 0
- 513 Passes 354
- 4 Goalkeeper saves 4
Goals and cards
- 36' Yellow card A. Tanaka Leeds
- 38' Yellow card E. Ampadu Leeds
- 39' Yellow card Leeds
- 55' Goal J. Justin (assist G. Gudmundsson) Leeds
- 59' Yellow card T. Muharemović Leeds
- 62' Goal R. Calafiori (assist B. White) Arsenal
- 70' Goal Bruno Guimaraes (assist D. Rice) Arsenal
- 78' Yellow card J. Justin Leeds
- 84' Yellow card M. Ødegaard Arsenal
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 63%Arsenal fair odds 1.58
- 24%Draw fair odds 4.15
- 13%Leeds fair odds 7.85
Most likely score 1-0 (13.1%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.09 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 2.09 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.86 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12% | 8.36 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 9% | 11.65 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26% | 3.89 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 52% | 1.92 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 88% | 1.14 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 46% | 2.18 |
| Both teams to score: No | 54% | 1.85 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 9.7
Arsenal 6.3 · Leeds 3.4
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 8.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 9.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 10.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 11.5 | 28% | 72% |
Expected cards: 4.0
Arsenal 1.6 · Leeds 2.4
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 56% | 44% |
| 4.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 5.5 | 22% | 78% |
Expected shots on target: 8.0
Arsenal 5.6 · Leeds 2.4
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 7.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 8.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 9.5 | 30% | 70% |
| 10.5 | 20% | 80% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (360 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–0 13.1%
- 2–0 12.9%
- 1–1 11.4%
- 2–1 10.1%
- 0–0 8.6%
- 3–0 7.6%
- 3–1 6.0%
- 0–1 4.0%
Team news & lineups
Arsenal
Bench V. Gyökeres , M. Dowman , Bruno Guimaraes , M. Zubimendi , Mikel Merino , E. Eze , J. Timber , P. Hincapie , Kepa
Leeds
Bench L. Nmecha , J. Bahoya , M. Zetterer , M. Bard , J. Bijol , S. Longstaff , I. Gruev , H. Wilson , B. Aaronson
Out and doubtful
- D. James Leeds Out — Back Injury
- C. Tzolis Arsenal Out — Hamstring Injury
- W. Saliba Arsenal Out — Back Injury
- J. Rodon Leeds Out — Muscle Injury
- M. Joseph Leeds Out — Knee Injury
- C. Mosquera Arsenal Doubtful — Muscle Injury
- E. Konsa Arsenal Doubtful — Muscle Injury
- K. Havertz Arsenal Doubtful — Muscle Injury
- M. Dowman Arsenal Doubtful — Injury
- H. Wilson Leeds Doubtful — Muscle Injury
- J. Bahoya Leeds Doubtful — Ankle Injury
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
Arsenal at home
8–1–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 0.5 per game
- Clean sheets
- 7 / 10
- Corners
- 5.4 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.3 per game
0% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Leeds away
2–5–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.9 per game
- Conceded
- 1.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 3.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.9 per game
22% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Arsenal vs Leeds head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Leeds v Arsenal | 0–4 | |
| Arsenal v Leeds | 5–0 | |
| Arsenal v Leeds | 4–1 | |
| Leeds v Arsenal | 0–1 |
Only 4 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +0.5 handicap | 37% | 2.72 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 37% | 2.72 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 63% | 1.59 |
| Away clean sheet | 15% | 6.52 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 96% | 1.04 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 87% | 1.15 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 53% | 1.90 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 85% | 1.18 |
| Home/Away double chance | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 63% | 1.58 |
| Home clean sheet | 47% | 2.11 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 13% | 7.85 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 55% | 1.81 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 37% | 2.68 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 17% | 5.84 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 28% | 3.61 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 4% | 24.86 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 4% | 24.35 |