Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense prediction & stats

Sat 24 Oct, 19:30 UTC

Serie A · Brazil · Regular Season - 32 · Barradao, Salvador

Vitoria stats & fixtures · Atletico Paranaense stats & fixtures

Vitoria take on Atletico Paranaense in Serie A on 24 October 2026. The Ghost makes Atletico Paranaense favourites at 36%, with the draw at 29%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 14.1%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 54%.

Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense prediction

35%Vitoria fair odds 2.90
29%Draw fair odds 3.40
36%Atletico Paranaense fair odds 2.77

Most likely score 1-1 (14.1%)

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Market	Ghost	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	91%	1.10
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.35
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.11
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.89
Over 4.5 goals	12%	8.44
Under 0.5 goals	9%	10.91
Under 1.5 goals	26%	3.89
Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.90
Under 3.5 goals	74%	1.35
Under 4.5 goals	88%	1.13
Both teams to score: Yes	54%	1.86
Both teams to score: No	46%	2.16

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.4

Vitoria 5.6 · Atletico Paranaense 4.8

Total corners	Over	Under
8.5	69%	31%
9.5	58%	42%
10.5	47%	53%
11.5	36%	64%
12.5	26%	74%

Expected cards: 4.9

Vitoria 2.4 · Atletico Paranaense 2.5

Total cards	Over	Under
2.5	86%	14%
3.5	71%	29%
4.5	53%	47%
5.5	37%	63%
6.5	23%	77%

Expected shots on target: 9.4

Vitoria 4.4 · Atletico Paranaense 5.0

Total shots on target	Over	Under
7.5	70%	30%
8.5	58%	42%
9.5	46%	54%
10.5	34%	66%
11.5	25%	75%

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (409 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1–1 14.1%
0–0 9.2%
0–1 8.4%
1–2 8.3%
1–0 8.1%
2–1 8.1%
0–2 6.5%
2–0 6.2%

Team news & lineups

Vitoria

Probable — not confirmed

95 Caique Goncalves Midfielder
83 Jamerson Defender
36 Luan Candido Defender
1 Lucas Arcanjo Goalkeeper
91 Rene Attacker
98 Matheusinho Defender
33 Erick Midfielder
25 Caca Defender
10 Matheuzinho Midfielder
6 Emmanuel Martinez Midfielder
12 D. Tarzia Midfielder

Atletico Paranaense

Probable — not confirmed

4 Arthur Dias Defender
1 Mycael Goalkeeper
7 S. Mendoza Midfielder
14 Luiz Gustavo Midfielder
16 Jadson Midfielder
12 Gilberto Midfielder
9 K. Viveros Attacker
8 Joao Cruz Attacker
33 F. Aguirre Defender
21 Leozinho Midfielder
37 L. Esquivel Midfielder

Form guide

Vitoria at home

6–1–3 in 10 matches

Scored: 1.4 per game
Conceded: 1.0 per game
Clean sheets: 6 / 10
Corners: 5.1 per game
Shots on target: 4.9 per game

7% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.

Atletico Paranaense away

5–2–3 in 10 matches

Scored: 1.8 per game
Conceded: 1.4 per game
Clean sheets: 2 / 10
Corners: 3.9 per game
Shots on target: 5.4 per game

11% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.

Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head

Date	Match	Score
26 Apr 26	Atletico Paranaense v Vitoria	3–1
2 Nov 24	Atletico Paranaense v Vitoria	1–2
30 Jun 24	Vitoria v Atletico Paranaense	0–1

Only 3 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.

The full Vitoria vs Atletico Paranaense head-to-head record

Double chance, handicap & team goals

Market	Ghost	Fair odds
Away +1.5 handicap	84%	1.19
Home +1.5 handicap	83%	1.20
Away Over 0.5 team goals	73%	1.37
Home Over 0.5 team goals	72%	1.39
Home/Away double chance	71%	1.42
Away +0.5 handicap	65%	1.53
Draw/Away double chance	65%	1.53
Home/Draw double chance	64%	1.57
Home +0.5 handicap	64%	1.57
Away Over 1.5 team goals	37%	2.67
Home Over 1.5 team goals	36%	2.76
Away -0.5 handicap	36%	2.77
Home -0.5 handicap	35%	2.90
Away clean sheet	28%	3.55
Home clean sheet	27%	3.67
Away -1.5 handicap	17%	5.95
Home -1.5 handicap	16%	6.34
Away Over 2.5 team goals	14%	6.97
Home Over 2.5 team goals	14%	7.35