Santos vs Bahia prediction & stats
Santos take on Bahia in Serie A on 25 October 2026. The Ghost makes Santos favourites at 44%, with the draw at 27%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 12.6%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 59%.
Santos vs Bahia prediction
- 44%Santos fair odds 2.27
- 27%Draw fair odds 3.75
- 29%Bahia fair odds 3.42
Most likely score 1-1 (12.6%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 3.03 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 17% | 5.93 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7% | 14.69 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 5.00 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44% | 2.25 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 59% | 1.69 |
| Both teams to score: No | 41% | 2.46 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 11.2
Santos 6.1 · Bahia 5.0
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 10.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 11.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 12.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 13.5 | 25% | 75% |
Expected cards: 5.0
Santos 2.7 · Bahia 2.3
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 4.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 5.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 6.5 | 24% | 76% |
| 7.5 | 14% | 86% |
Expected shots on target: 9.7
Santos 5.3 · Bahia 4.4
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 8.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 9.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 10.5 | 38% | 62% |
| 11.5 | 28% | 72% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (409 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 12.6%
- 2–1 9.4%
- 1–0 7.6%
- 1–2 7.3%
- 2–0 7.3%
- 0–0 6.8%
- 2–2 5.8%
- 0–1 5.6%
Team news & lineups
Santos
- 23 Rodinei Defender
- 9 Gabriel Barbosa Attacker
- 31 G. Escobar Defender
- 15 Willian Arao Defender
- 4 Lucas Verissimo Defender
- 28 C. Oliva Midfielder
- 1 Diógenes Goalkeeper
- 48 Gustavo Henrique Midfielder
- 8 Gabriel Bontempo Midfielder
- 7 Everton Midfielder
- 32 B. Rollheiser Attacker
Bahia
- 16 Erick Pulga Attacker
- 11 Rodrigo Midfielder
- 9 A. Véliz Attacker
- 46 Luciano Juba Defender
- 33 David Duarte Defender
- 1 Ronaldo Strada Goalkeeper
- 99 C. Olivera Attacker
- 6 Jean Lucas Midfielder
- 5 Nicolas Acevedo Midfielder
- 44 Marcos Victor Defender
- 4 Kanu Defender
Form guide
Santos at home
6–3–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 7.6 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.3 per game
33% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Bahia away
2–4–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.4 per game
- Conceded
- 1.6 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 5.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.8 per game
21% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Santos vs Bahia head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Bahia v Santos | 2–2 | |
| Bahia v Santos | 2–0 | |
| Santos v Bahia | 2–2 | |
| Bahia v Santos | 1–2 | |
| Santos v Bahia | 3–0 |
Only 5 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 87% | 1.15 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 80% | 1.25 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 77% | 1.30 |
| Home/Away double chance | 73% | 1.36 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 72% | 1.38 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 71% | 1.41 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 71% | 1.41 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 56% | 1.79 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 56% | 1.79 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 48% | 2.08 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 44% | 2.27 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 37% | 2.71 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 29% | 3.42 |
| Home clean sheet | 28% | 3.62 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 23% | 4.30 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 22% | 4.54 |
| Away clean sheet | 20% | 5.03 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 14% | 7.10 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 13% | 7.53 |