Bahia vs Mirassol match stats & report
1–0 Full time
Bahia beat Mirassol 1–0 in Serie A on 11 October 2026. Expected goals finished 3.22–1.89. Bahia had 53% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Bahia 53%, the draw 25% and Mirassol 22%.
Bahia vs Mirassol match statistics
- 53% Ball possession 47%
- 3.22 Expected goals (xG) 1.89
- 16 Total shots 10
- 2 Shots on target 2
- 12 Shots off target 5
- 2 Blocked shots 3
- 12 Shots inside the box 8
- 6 Corners 2
- 13 Fouls 16
- 1 Offsides 1
- 1 Yellow cards 4
- 0 Red cards 0
- 510 Passes 457
- 2 Goalkeeper saves 1
Goals and cards
- 35' Yellow card Chico Mirassol
- 36' Yellow card Walter Mirassol
- 38' Penalty scored Luciano Juba Bahia
- 63' Yellow card Jean Lucas Bahia
- 78' Yellow card Carlos Eduardo Mirassol
- 90+3' Yellow card Neto Moura Mirassol
- 90+7' Penalty missed Reinaldo Mirassol
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 53%Bahia fair odds 1.88
- 25%Draw fair odds 4.01
- 22%Mirassol fair odds 4.60
Most likely score 1-1 (11.8%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 1.24 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 2.94 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 18% | 5.67 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 15.57 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19% | 5.18 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 43% | 2.31 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 66% | 1.52 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 82% | 1.21 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 58% | 1.72 |
| Both teams to score: No | 42% | 2.38 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 11.1
Bahia 6.6 · Mirassol 4.5
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 9.5 | 65% | 35% |
| 10.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 11.5 | 43% | 57% |
| 12.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 13.5 | 24% | 76% |
Expected cards: 4.2
Bahia 1.7 · Mirassol 2.5
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 3.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 4.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 5.5 | 25% | 75% |
| 6.5 | 14% | 86% |
Expected shots on target: 9.9
Bahia 5.9 · Mirassol 4.0
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 8.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 9.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 10.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 11.5 | 30% | 70% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (407 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 11.8%
- 2–1 10.2%
- 2–0 8.9%
- 1–0 8.5%
- 0–0 6.4%
- 3–1 6.1%
- 1–2 5.9%
- 2–2 5.3%
Team news & lineups
Bahia
Bench Ze Guilherme , Erick , Roman Gomez , G. Herrera , Lautaro López , M. Sanabria , Kanu , Everaldo , Ademir , Willian Jose , Everton Ribeiro , Michel Araujo
Mirassol
Bench Wallisson , Zé Roberto , Shaylon , Victor Luís , Carlos Eduardo , Daniel Borges , Gabriel , Thomazella , Fernandinho , Edson Carioca , Andre Luis , Eduardo
Out and doubtful
- Nicolas Acevedo Bahia Out — Yellow Cards
- Leo Vieira Bahia Out — Knee Injury
- Joao Victor Mirassol Out — Red Card
- Jose Aldo Mirassol Out — Muscle Injury
- Negueba Mirassol Out — Knee Injury
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
Bahia at home
6–3–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 6.7 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.0 per game
18% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Mirassol away
2–3–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 1.3 per game
- Clean sheets
- 0 / 10
- Corners
- 3.5 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.0 per game
25% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Bahia vs Mirassol head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Mirassol v Bahia | 1–2 | |
| Mirassol v Bahia | 5–1 | |
| Bahia v Mirassol | 1–1 |
Only 3 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +0.5 handicap | 47% | 2.14 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 47% | 2.14 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 31% | 3.24 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 10% | 9.53 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 22% | 4.60 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 70% | 1.44 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 67% | 1.48 |
| Away clean sheet | 16% | 6.29 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 84% | 1.19 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home/Away double chance | 75% | 1.33 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 53% | 1.88 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 55% | 1.82 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 30% | 3.29 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 9% | 11.08 |
| Home clean sheet | 33% | 3.07 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 28% | 3.62 |