Sao Paulo vs Vitoria match stats & report
2–1 Full time
Sao Paulo beat Vitoria 2–1 in Serie A on 11 October 2026. Expected goals finished 1.80–0.79. Sao Paulo had 55% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Sao Paulo 50%, the draw 28% and Vitoria 22%.
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria match statistics
- 55% Ball possession 45%
- 1.80 Expected goals (xG) 0.79
- 21 Total shots 12
- 6 Shots on target 2
- 9 Shots off target 8
- 6 Blocked shots 2
- 12 Shots inside the box 6
- 6 Corners 2
- 13 Fouls 13
- 4 Yellow cards 3
- 0 Red cards 0
- 480 Passes 405
- 1 Goalkeeper saves 4
Goals and cards
- 16' Yellow card Matheuzinho Vitoria
- 16' Yellow card Caca Vitoria
- 20' Goal Jonathan Calleri (assist Iago Borduchi) Sao Paulo
- 24' Yellow card G. Santana Sao Paulo
- 39' Goal Emmanuel Martinez (assist Erick) Vitoria
- 44' Yellow card Djhordney Sao Paulo
- 70' Goal Jonathan Calleri Sao Paulo
- 77' Yellow card Sabino Sao Paulo
- 78' Yellow card Iago Borduchi Sao Paulo
- 86' Yellow card Renato Kayzer Vitoria
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 50%Sao Paulo fair odds 2.01
- 28%Draw fair odds 3.52
- 22%Vitoria fair odds 4.58
Most likely score 1-1 (13.5%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 90% | 1.11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 1.38 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 2.19 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | 4.15 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 11% | 9.25 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 10% | 10.35 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 27% | 3.67 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54% | 1.84 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 76% | 1.32 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 89% | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 50% | 2.00 |
| Both teams to score: No | 50% | 2.00 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.8
Sao Paulo 7.0 · Vitoria 3.8
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 9.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 10.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 11.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 12.5 | 30% | 70% |
Expected cards: 4.7
Sao Paulo 2.1 · Vitoria 2.6
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 68% | 32% |
| 4.5 | 50% | 50% |
| 5.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 6.5 | 20% | 80% |
Expected shots on target: 9.0
Sao Paulo 5.6 · Vitoria 3.4
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 7.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 8.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 9.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 10.5 | 30% | 70% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (405 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.5%
- 1–0 11.4%
- 2–0 9.8%
- 0–0 9.7%
- 2–1 9.7%
- 0–1 6.2%
- 1–2 5.7%
- 3–0 4.9%
Team news & lineups
Sao Paulo
Bench Carlos Coronel , Pedro Lima , Pedro Ferreira , Pablo Maia , Lucca Marques , Wendell , Andre Silva , Lucas Moura , Ryan Francisco , Victor Sa , Marcos Antonio , R. Toloi
Vitoria
Bench Alex Bruno , Walace , Ze Vitor , Yuri , Edenilson , Marinho , T. Pochettino , I. Laquintana , Renato Kayzer , E. Brítez , Anderson Pato, Fabricio
Out and doubtful
- Luciano Sao Paulo Out — Inactive
- Rafael Sao Paulo Out — Inactive
- D. Tarzia Vitoria Out — Yellow Cards
- Nathan Mendes Vitoria Out — Knee Injury
- Buta Sao Paulo Out — Knee Injury
- D. Duarte Sao Paulo Out — Knee Injury
- Ferreira Sao Paulo Out — Injury
- Iago Borduchi Sao Paulo Out — Inactive
- Lucca Marques Sao Paulo Out — Jaw injury
- N. Bosshardt Sao Paulo Out — Inactive
- Anderson Vitoria Out — Knee Injury
- Baralhas Vitoria Out — Broken Leg
- Camutanga Vitoria Out — Broken Leg
- Dudu Vitoria Out — Back Injury
- Edu Vitoria Out — Achilles Tendon Injury
- Fabiano Vitoria Out — Knee Injury
- Ramon Vitoria Out — Leg Injury
- Riccieli Vitoria Out — Calf Injury
- Lucas Moura Sao Paulo Doubtful — Achilles Tendon Injury
Only confirmed absences move the numbers. Doubts are listed so you can judge them yourself.
Form guide
Sao Paulo at home
6–2–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.5 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 7.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.8 per game
13% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Vitoria away
0–3–7 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 2.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 4.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.5 per game
12% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Sao Paulo vs Vitoria head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Vitoria v Sao Paulo | 2–0 | |
| Vitoria v Sao Paulo | 1–0 | |
| Sao Paulo v Vitoria | 2–0 | |
| Sao Paulo v Vitoria | 2–1 | |
| Vitoria v Sao Paulo | 1–3 |
Only 5 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 7% | 13.59 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 22% | 4.58 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 50% | 1.99 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 25% | 4.02 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 50% | 1.99 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 74% | 1.35 |
| Away clean sheet | 21% | 4.70 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 62% | 1.62 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 92% | 1.09 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 79% | 1.27 |
| Home/Away double chance | 72% | 1.40 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 78% | 1.28 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 8% | 12.00 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 46% | 2.19 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 50% | 2.01 |
| Home clean sheet | 38% | 2.61 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 26% | 3.85 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 20% | 5.02 |