Woking vs Birmingham City U21 prediction & stats

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Woking to score about 2.1 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 2-0 (11%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Birmingham City U21 has a new coach, Scott Sellars, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Woking attack scores 43% more than average, against Birmingham City U21 defence, which lets in 9% fewer than average: 2.64 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
• Birmingham City U21 attack scores 6% more than average, against Woking defence, which lets in 49% fewer than average: 0.92 goals (an average side here: 1.70)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Woking 2.84, Birmingham City U21 0.72.

Ratings from 159 matches for Woking and 79 for Birmingham City U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Birmingham City U21 have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Woking have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–0 11.5%
2. 3–0 10.9%
3. 2–1 8.2%
4. 3–1 7.8%
5. 4–0 7.7%
6. 1–0 7.3%
7. 1–1 6.6%
8. 4–1 5.6%