Tamworth vs Everton U21 prediction, stats & H2H

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Tamworth to score about 0.6 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 31481 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last meeting: Tamworth won 1, 0 drawn, Everton U21 won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Everton U21 has had 4 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (11%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Everton U21 has a new coach, P. Tait, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Tamworth attack scores 42% more than average, against Everton U21 defence, which lets in 35% fewer than average: 1.86 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
• Everton U21 attack scores 38% more than average, against Tamworth defence, which lets in 41% fewer than average: 1.39 goals (an average side here: 1.70)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Tamworth 1.93, Everton U21 1.32.

Ratings from 159 matches for Tamworth and 76 for Everton U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Everton U21 score 0.9 a game — 9th percentile in this competition.
• Everton U21 win 6.5 corners a game — 83rd percentile in this competition.
• Tamworth score 2.1 a game — 78th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.2%
2. 2–1 9.5%
3. 2–0 7.2%
4. 1–2 6.5%
5. 2–2 6.3%
6. 1–0 6.2%
7. 3–1 6.1%
8. 0–0 5.2%