Aldershot Town vs Ipswich Town U21 prediction & stats

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Aldershot Town to score about 1.2 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 2-1 (9%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Aldershot Town attack scores 45% more than average, against Ipswich Town U21 defence, which lets in 16% fewer than average: 2.47 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
• Ipswich Town U21 attack scores 45% more than average, against Aldershot Town defence, which lets in 36% fewer than average: 1.57 goals (an average side here: 1.70)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Aldershot Town 2.60, Ipswich Town U21 1.45.

Ratings from 165 matches for Aldershot Town and 79 for Ipswich Town U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Ipswich Town U21 score 1.3 a game — 28th percentile in this competition.
• Aldershot Town have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.
• Ipswich Town U21 have kept 2 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–1 8.5%
2. 1–1 7.4%
3. 3–1 7.4%
4. 2–2 6.2%
5. 2–0 5.9%
6. 3–2 5.4%
7. 3–0 5.1%
8. 4–1 4.8%