Braintree vs Norwich City U21 prediction & stats

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Norwich City U21 has had 5 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (11%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Norwich City U21 has a new coach, Olly Lee, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Braintree attack scores 13% more than average, against Norwich City U21 defence, which lets in 27% fewer than average: 1.68 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
• Norwich City U21 attack scores 40% more than average, against Braintree defence, which lets in 33% fewer than average: 1.59 goals (an average side here: 1.70)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Braintree 1.69, Norwich City U21 1.58.

Ratings from 163 matches for Braintree and 65 for Norwich City U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Norwich City U21 score 2.1 a game — 91st percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 9 of Norwich City U21’s last 10.
• Norwich City U21 have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.5%
2. 2–1 8.6%
3. 1–2 8.0%
4. 2–2 6.8%
5. 2–0 5.4%
6. 0–0 5.1%
7. 1–0 5.1%
8. 3–1 4.8%