Wealdstone vs Derby County U21 prediction, stats & H2H
Wealdstone stats & fixtures · Derby County U21 stats & fixtures
Wealdstone take on Derby County U21 in the National League Cup (Group Stage) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Wealdstone favourites at 64%, with the draw at 20%. The likeliest score is 2–1, at 9.4%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 64%.
Wealdstone vs Derby County U21 prediction
The Ghost: Wealdstone to win, 64%
- 64%Wealdstone fair odds 1.56
- 20%Draw fair odds 4.98
- 16%Derby County U21 fair odds 6.41
Most likely score 2-1 (9.4%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Wealdstone to score about 1.3 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.
High confidence — Fitted on 31481 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Wealdstone
Attack 1.43 · Defence 0.59
Last five: WLWWW, scored 10, conceded 5
Derby County U21
Attack 1.29 · Defence 0.79
Last five: LLWDL, scored 11, conceded 11
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last meeting: Wealdstone won 1, 0 drawn, Derby County U21 won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 2-1 (9%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
- Derby County U21 has a new coach, Danny Maye, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Wealdstone attack scores 43% more than average, against Derby County U21 defence, which lets in 21% fewer than average: 2.29 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
- Derby County U21 attack scores 29% more than average, against Wealdstone defence, which lets in 41% fewer than average: 1.30 goals (an average side here: 1.70)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Wealdstone 2.43, Derby County U21 1.16.
Ratings from 162 matches for Wealdstone and 66 for Derby County U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Derby County U21 have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
- Wealdstone score 2.1 a game — 78th percentile in this competition.
- Derby County U21 score 1.8 a game — 72nd percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88% | 1.13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 1.44 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 48% | 2.07 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 29% | 3.42 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4% | 26.58 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 12% | 8.60 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 30% | 3.29 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 52% | 1.94 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 71% | 1.41 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 64% | 1.57 |
| Both teams to score: No | 36% | 2.75 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–1 9.4%
- 1–1 8.8%
- 2–0 8.1%
- 3–1 7.7%
- 3–0 6.6%
- 1–0 5.7%
- 2–2 5.5%
- 4–1 4.7%
Form guide
Wealdstone at home
5–1–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.1 per game
- Conceded
- 1.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
33% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Derby County U21 away
3–0–7 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.8 per game
- Conceded
- 2.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Wealdstone vs Derby County U21 head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Wealdstone v Derby County U21 | 2–0 |
Only 1 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 94% | 1.07 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 84% | 1.18 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 84% | 1.18 |
| Home/Away double chance | 80% | 1.25 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 69% | 1.46 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 64% | 1.56 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 56% | 1.77 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 44% | 2.28 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 44% | 2.30 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 36% | 2.80 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 36% | 2.80 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 32% | 3.09 |
| Home clean sheet | 31% | 3.19 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 16% | 6.41 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 11% | 8.91 |
| Away clean sheet | 9% | 11.37 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 6% | 16.14 |
No bookmaker prices this competition, so there's nothing to compare the Ghost against.