Truro City vs West Bromwich Albion U21 prediction & stats

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Truro City to score about 1.1 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition.

High confidence — Fitted on 31481 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• West Bromwich Albion U21 has had 5 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (11%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• West Bromwich Albion U21 has a new coach, Leigh Downing, for its last 7 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Truro City attack scores 22% more than average, against West Bromwich Albion U21 defence, which lets in 21% fewer than average: 1.94 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
• West Bromwich Albion U21 attack scores 29% more than average, against Truro City defence, which lets in 49% fewer than average: 1.11 goals (an average side here: 1.70)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Truro City 2.05, West Bromwich Albion U21 0.99.

Ratings from 155 matches for Truro City and 68 for West Bromwich Albion U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Truro City score 2.6 a game — 97th percentile in this competition.
• West Bromwich Albion U21 score 1.9 a game — 81st percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of West Bromwich Albion U21’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.0%
2. 2–0 10.0%
3. 2–1 10.0%
4. 1–0 8.5%
5. 3–0 6.9%
6. 3–1 6.8%
7. 0–0 6.0%
8. 2–2 4.9%