Sutton Utd vs Southampton U21 prediction, stats & H2H

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 31481 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 2 meetings: Sutton Utd won 2, 0 drawn, Southampton U21 won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (11%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Southampton U21 has a new coach, Tonda Eckert, for its last 5 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Sutton Utd attack scores 31% more than average, against Southampton U21 defence, which lets in 38% fewer than average: 1.65 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
• Southampton U21 attack scores 64% more than average, against Sutton Utd defence, which lets in 42% fewer than average: 1.62 goals (an average side here: 1.70)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Sutton Utd 1.66, Southampton U21 1.62.

Ratings from 165 matches for Sutton Utd and 71 for Southampton U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Southampton U21 score 2.3 a game — 97th percentile in this competition.
• Sutton Utd score 1.4 a game — 19th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 8 of Southampton U21’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.5%
2. 2–1 8.4%
3. 1–2 8.2%
4. 2–2 6.8%
5. 2–0 5.2%
6. 0–0 5.1%
7. 1–0 5.0%
8. 0–2 5.0%