Scunthorpe vs Wolves U21 prediction & stats

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Scunthorpe to score about 1.4 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Wolves U21 has had 12 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 2-0 (10%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Wolves U21 has a new coach, Richard Walker, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Scunthorpe attack scores 48% more than average, against Wolves U21 defence, which lets in 27% fewer than average: 2.20 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
• Wolves U21 attack scores 21% more than average, against Scunthorpe defence, which lets in 46% fewer than average: 1.10 goals (an average side here: 1.70)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Scunthorpe 2.34, Wolves U21 0.96.

Ratings from 156 matches for Scunthorpe and 76 for Wolves U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Wolves U21 have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Wolves U21 score 0.7 a game — 6th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of Scunthorpe’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–0 10.1%
2. 2–1 9.7%
3. 1–1 9.3%
4. 3–0 7.9%
5. 3–1 7.6%
6. 1–0 7.5%
7. 0–0 4.7%
8. 2–2 4.6%