Hartlepool vs Leeds United U21 prediction, stats & H2H

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Hartlepool to score about 0.3 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 31481 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last meeting: Hartlepool won 1, 0 drawn, Leeds United U21 won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Hartlepool attack scores 16% more than average, against Leeds United U21 defence, which lets in 27% fewer than average: 1.73 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
• Leeds United U21 attack scores 42% more than average, against Hartlepool defence, which lets in 39% fewer than average: 1.47 goals (an average side here: 1.70)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Hartlepool 1.77, Leeds United U21 1.43.

Ratings from 146 matches for Hartlepool and 76 for Leeds United U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Leeds United U21 have kept 0 clean sheets in 10.
• Hartlepool score 0.5 a game — 3rd percentile in this competition.
• Leeds United U21 win 7 corners a game — 92nd percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.6%
2. 2–1 9.1%
3. 1–2 7.4%
4. 2–2 6.5%
5. 2–0 6.4%
6. 1–0 5.9%
7. 0–0 5.4%
8. 3–1 5.4%