Gateshead vs Stoke City U21 prediction & stats

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Gateshead to score about 0.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 31481 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (11%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Stoke City U21 has a new coach, Liam Lawrence, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Gateshead attack scores 17% more than average, against Stoke City U21 defence, which lets in 22% fewer than average: 1.84 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
• Stoke City U21 attack scores 22% more than average, against Gateshead defence, which lets in 30% fewer than average: 1.46 goals (an average side here: 1.70)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Gateshead 1.90, Stoke City U21 1.41.

Ratings from 161 matches for Gateshead and 68 for Stoke City U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Gateshead win 10 corners a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Gateshead score 0.9 a game — 9th percentile in this competition.
• Gateshead have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.1%
2. 2–1 9.3%
3. 1–2 6.9%
4. 2–0 6.6%
5. 2–2 6.5%
6. 3–1 5.9%
7. 1–0 5.7%
8. 0–0 5.0%