FC Halifax Town vs Nottingham Forest U21 prediction & stats

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects FC Halifax Town to score about 0.9 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 31481 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Nottingham Forest U21 has a new coach, Dylan Malicheff, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• FC Halifax Town attack scores 51% more than average, against Nottingham Forest U21 defence, which lets in 45% fewer than average: 1.67 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
• Nottingham Forest U21 attack scores 13% more than average, against FC Halifax Town defence, which lets in 49% fewer than average: 0.98 goals (an average side here: 1.70)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on FC Halifax Town 1.77, Nottingham Forest U21 0.89.

Ratings from 155 matches for FC Halifax Town and 83 for Nottingham Forest U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• FC Halifax Town score 2.4 a game — 91st percentile in this competition.
• Nottingham Forest U21 have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Both teams have scored in 8 of Nottingham Forest U21’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 12.5%
2. 1–0 11.0%
3. 2–0 11.0%
4. 2–1 9.7%
5. 0–0 8.5%
6. 3–0 6.5%
7. 3–1 5.7%
8. 1–2 4.9%