Cambridge United vs Brighton U21 prediction, stats & H2H
Cambridge United stats & fixtures · Brighton U21 stats & fixtures
Cambridge United take on Brighton U21 in the EFL Trophy (Group South - 7) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Cambridge United favourites at 64%, with the draw at 22%. The likeliest score is 2–0, at 10.8%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 59% and both teams scoring at 54%.
Cambridge United vs Brighton U21 prediction
The Ghost: over 0.5 goals, 94%
- 64%Cambridge United fair odds 1.55
- 22%Draw fair odds 4.57
- 14%Brighton U21 fair odds 7.30
Most likely score 2-0 (10.8%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Cambridge United to score about 1.2 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition.
High confidence — Fitted on 31481 matches, and close to what the market implies.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Cambridge United
Attack 1.79 · Defence 0.39
Last five: LDLDW, scored 7, conceded 10
Brighton U21
Attack 1.58 · Defence 0.56
Last five: WDLWL, scored 13, conceded 15
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last meeting: Cambridge United won 1, 0 drawn, Brighton U21 won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
- Brighton U21 has had 8 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 2-0 (11%). Confidence: High.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Cambridge United attack scores 79% more than average, against Brighton U21 defence, which lets in 44% fewer than average: 2.02 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
- Brighton U21 attack scores 58% more than average, against Cambridge United defence, which lets in 61% fewer than average: 1.05 goals (an average side here: 1.70)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Cambridge United 2.15, Brighton U21 0.91.
Ratings from 159 matches for Cambridge United and 83 for Brighton U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Brighton U21 win 1.5 corners a game — 3rd percentile in this competition.
- Brighton U21 score 2.2 a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
- Cambridge United win 7.8 corners a game — 94th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | 1.22 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 1.69 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | 2.73 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20% | 5.13 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 17.01 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18% | 5.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 41% | 2.44 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 63% | 1.58 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 80% | 1.24 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 54% | 1.85 |
| Both teams to score: No | 46% | 2.18 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 11.0
Cambridge United 7.8 · Brighton U21 3.2
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 9.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 10.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 11.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 12.5 | 32% | 68% |
Expected cards: 2.8
Cambridge United 1.4 · Brighton U21 1.4
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 4.5 | 15% | 85% |
Expected shots on target: 9.1
Cambridge United 5.8 · Brighton U21 3.2
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 8.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 9.5 | 42% | 58% |
| 10.5 | 31% | 69% |
| 11.5 | 22% | 78% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (2262 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 10.8%
- 1–1 10.4%
- 2–1 9.9%
- 1–0 8.9%
- 3–0 7.7%
- 3–1 7.1%
- 0–0 5.9%
- 2–2 4.5%
Form guide
Cambridge United at home
5–2–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.6 per game
- Conceded
- 1.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 7.8 per game
- Shots on target
- 5.2 per game
38% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Brighton U21 away
5–1–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.2 per game
- Conceded
- 1.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 1.5 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.0 per game
Cambridge United vs Brighton U21 head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Cambridge United v Brighton U21 | 1–0 |
Only 1 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
The full Cambridge United vs Brighton U21 head-to-head record
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 95% | 1.05 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 88% | 1.13 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 86% | 1.16 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 86% | 1.16 |
| Home/Away double chance | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 64% | 1.55 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 63% | 1.58 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 60% | 1.67 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 58% | 1.72 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 42% | 2.39 |
| Home clean sheet | 40% | 2.49 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 36% | 2.75 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 36% | 2.81 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 36% | 2.81 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 23% | 4.30 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 14% | 7.30 |
| Away clean sheet | 12% | 8.56 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 7% | 15.35 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 5% | 20.90 |