Newport County vs Crystal Palace U21 prediction & stats
Newport County stats & fixtures · Crystal Palace U21 stats & fixtures
Newport County take on Crystal Palace U21 in the EFL Trophy (Group South - 5) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Newport County favourites at 51%, with the draw at 25%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 11.7%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 62%.
Newport County vs Crystal Palace U21 prediction
The Ghost: Newport County to win, 51%
- 51%Newport County fair odds 1.97
- 25%Draw fair odds 3.96
- 24%Crystal Palace U21 fair odds 4.16
Most likely score 1-1 (11.7%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Newport County to score about 0.6 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 31481 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Newport County
Attack 1.42 · Defence 0.51
Last five: WLDDW, scored 8, conceded 5
Crystal Palace U21
Attack 1.51 · Defence 0.63
Last five: LWLLL, scored 8, conceded 16
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Crystal Palace U21 has had 4 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Newport County attack scores 42% more than average, against Crystal Palace U21 defence, which lets in 37% fewer than average: 1.80 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
- Crystal Palace U21 attack scores 51% more than average, against Newport County defence, which lets in 49% fewer than average: 1.32 goals (an average side here: 1.70)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Newport County 1.87, Crystal Palace U21 1.25.
Ratings from 155 matches for Newport County and 71 for Crystal Palace U21, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Crystal Palace U21 win 3 corners a game — 12th percentile in this competition.
- Crystal Palace U21 have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
- Crystal Palace U21 score 1.7 a game — 77th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.06 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | 1.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 1.66 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38% | 2.64 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 20% | 4.88 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 17.34 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17% | 5.92 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 40% | 2.52 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 62% | 1.61 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 80% | 1.26 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 62% | 1.62 |
| Both teams to score: No | 38% | 2.60 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.6
Newport County 6.1 · Crystal Palace U21 4.5
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 9.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 10.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 11.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 12.5 | 27% | 73% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (2262 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 11.7%
- 2–1 9.7%
- 2–0 7.8%
- 1–0 6.9%
- 1–2 6.4%
- 3–1 6.0%
- 2–2 6.0%
- 0–0 5.8%
Team news & lineups
Newport County
- 6 C. Brennan Midfielder
- 5 L. Jenkins Defender
- 1 J. Wright Goalkeeper
- 4 K. Cameron Defender
- 10 H. Biggins Midfielder
- 22 C. Norman Defender
- 23 M. Adu-Poku Midfielder
- 20 Y. Bamba Midfielder
- 24 M. Dibley-Dias Midfielder
- 19 G. Garner Attacker
- 12 Joe Thomas Defender
Crystal Palace U21
No lineup published yet.
Form guide
Newport County at home
4–4–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 1.6 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 5.8 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.0 per game
24% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Crystal Palace U21 away
5–1–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 2.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 1 / 10
- Corners
- 3.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.5 per game
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 90% | 1.12 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 85% | 1.18 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 76% | 1.32 |
| Home/Away double chance | 75% | 1.34 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 71% | 1.40 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 70% | 1.42 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 56% | 1.79 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 51% | 1.97 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 49% | 2.03 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 49% | 2.03 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 35% | 2.83 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 30% | 3.38 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 29% | 3.46 |
| Home clean sheet | 29% | 3.47 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 24% | 4.16 |
| Away clean sheet | 15% | 6.50 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 13% | 7.66 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 10% | 9.63 |