Rochdale vs Doncaster prediction & stats
Rochdale take on Doncaster in the EFL Trophy (Group North - 8) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Doncaster favourites at 40%, with the draw at 28%. The likeliest score is 1–1, at 13.2%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 59%.
Rochdale vs Doncaster prediction
The Ghost: double chance Rochdale or Doncaster, 72%
- 32%Rochdale fair odds 3.08
- 28%Draw fair odds 3.59
- 40%Doncaster fair odds 2.52
Most likely score 1-1 (13.2%)
Why the Ghost says this
The two sides are expected to score about the same.
Medium confidence — Fitted on 31481 matches.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Rochdale
Attack 1.57 · Defence 0.49
Last five: LLDLD, scored 7, conceded 15
Doncaster
Attack 1.81 · Defence 0.43
Last five: LLWLL, scored 5, conceded 13
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.19× what an average away side does. In the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (13%). Confidence: Medium.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Rochdale attack scores 57% more than average, against Doncaster defence, which lets in 57% fewer than average: 1.37 goals (an average side here: 2.03)
- Doncaster attack scores 81% more than average, against Rochdale defence, which lets in 51% fewer than average: 1.50 goals (an average side here: 1.70)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Rochdale 1.35, Doncaster 1.51.
Ratings from 155 matches for Rochdale and 169 for Doncaster, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Rochdale win 4.7 corners a game — 29th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 93% | 1.08 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | 1.26 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | 3.10 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 16% | 6.14 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 7% | 13.89 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 20% | 4.88 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.20 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 68% | 1.48 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 84% | 1.19 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 59% | 1.68 |
| Both teams to score: No | 41% | 2.46 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 10.5
Rochdale 6.0 · Doncaster 4.5
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 8.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 9.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 10.5 | 47% | 53% |
| 11.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 12.5 | 27% | 73% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (2262 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 13.2%
- 1–2 8.8%
- 2–1 7.9%
- 0–0 7.2%
- 0–1 7.1%
- 0–2 6.5%
- 1–0 6.2%
- 2–2 6.0%
Team news & lineups
Rochdale
- 7 C. Hayes Midfielder
- 3 Kaiden Wilson Defender
- 45 G. Middleton Midfielder
- 2 C. Tasker Defender
- 39 D. Brown Attacker
- 8 H. Gilmour Midfielder
- 44 A. Flint Defender
- 17 B. Adeeko Midfielder
- 20 S. Waller Goalkeeper
- 26 S. Sherring Defender
- 14 E. Francis Midfielder
Doncaster
- 27 S. Grehan Defender
- 11 L. Ayinde Midfielder
- 12 N. Byrne Defender
- 4 O. Bailey Midfielder
- 1 Tommy Simkin Goalkeeper
- 21 I. Hutchinson Midfielder
- 2 J. Sterry Defender
- 23 J. Senior Defender
- 22 R. Gotts Midfielder
- 8 G. Broadbent Midfielder
- 10 A. May Attacker
Form guide
Rochdale at home
3–3–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.7 per game
- Conceded
- 2.1 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 4.7 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.4 per game
41% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Doncaster away
2–3–5 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.2 per game
- Conceded
- 1.8 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 10
- Corners
- 5.1 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.1 per game
33% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away +1.5 handicap | 85% | 1.18 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 80% | 1.25 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 78% | 1.28 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Home/Away double chance | 72% | 1.39 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 68% | 1.48 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 68% | 1.48 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 60% | 1.66 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 60% | 1.66 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 45% | 2.24 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 40% | 2.52 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 39% | 2.55 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 32% | 3.08 |
| Away clean sheet | 26% | 3.87 |
| Home clean sheet | 22% | 4.54 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 20% | 4.96 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 19% | 5.14 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 16% | 6.44 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 15% | 6.58 |