Istra 1961 vs Neretva Metković prediction, stats & H2H
Istra 1961 stats & fixtures · Neretva Metković stats & fixtures
Istra 1961 take on Neretva Metković in the Cup (Round of 16) on 3 November 2026. The Ghost makes Istra 1961 favourites at 77%, with the draw at 16%. The likeliest score is 2–0, at 11.9%. It puts over 2.5 goals at 65% and both teams scoring at 49%.
Istra 1961 vs Neretva Metković prediction
The Ghost: Istra 1961 to win, 77%
- 77%Istra 1961 fair odds 1.30
- 16%Draw fair odds 6.23
- 7%Neretva Metković fair odds 13.65
Most likely score 2-0 (11.9%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Istra 1961 to score about 1.9 more and playing at home is worth roughly 43% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Istra 1961
Attack 1.68 · Defence 0.49
Last five: WDLWL, scored 7, conceded 6
Neretva Metković
Attack 1.28 · Defence 0.69
Last five: WWDWW, scored 19, conceded 5
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.43× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last meeting: Istra 1961 won 1, 0 drawn, Neretva Metković won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 2-0 (12%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
Nothing unusual behind these numbers.
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Istra 1961 attack scores 68% more than average, against Neretva Metković defence, which lets in 31% fewer than average: 2.44 goals (an average side here: 2.10)
- Neretva Metković attack scores 28% more than average, against Istra 1961 defence, which lets in 51% fewer than average: 0.92 goals (an average side here: 1.47)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Istra 1961 2.62, Neretva Metković 0.74.
Ratings from 115 matches for Istra 1961 and 82 for Neretva Metković, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Istra 1961 win 4.2 corners a game — 9th percentile in this competition.
- Istra 1961 score 2.4 a game — 83rd percentile in this competition.
- Both teams have scored in 7 of Istra 1961’s last 10.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.05 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 1.17 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 1.53 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 43% | 2.31 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 25% | 4.04 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4% | 22.91 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14% | 6.99 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 35% | 2.87 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 57% | 1.76 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 75% | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 49% | 2.03 |
| Both teams to score: No | 51% | 1.97 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 11.9%
- 3–0 10.4%
- 2–1 8.8%
- 1–0 8.2%
- 3–1 7.7%
- 1–1 7.6%
- 4–0 6.8%
- 4–1 5.0%
Team news & lineups
Istra 1961
- 44 R. Hrvatin Defender
- 13 Niko Šepić Defender
- 1 F. Kolić Goalkeeper
- 22 E. Frederiksen Midfielder
- 3 M. Nasraoui Defender
- 25 G. Albarracín Midfielder
- 30 N. Skafar Zuzic Midfielder
- 5 D. Hodzic Midfielder
- 4 R. Kumar Defender
- 20 D. Ahmeti Midfielder
- 94 H. Jaganjac Attacker
Neretva Metković
No lineup published yet.
Form guide
Istra 1961 at home
5–3–2 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.4 per game
- Conceded
- 1.5 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 10
- Corners
- 4.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.2 per game
10% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Neretva Metković away
5–4–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.4 per game
- Conceded
- 0.7 per game
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- Corners
- not available
- Shots on target
- not available
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Istra 1961 vs Neretva Metković head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Neretva Metković v Istra 1961 | 1–2 |
Only 1 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 98% | 1.02 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 93% | 1.08 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 93% | 1.08 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 93% | 1.08 |
| Home/Away double chance | 84% | 1.19 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 77% | 1.30 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 74% | 1.36 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 56% | 1.78 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 52% | 1.91 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 49% | 2.06 |
| Home clean sheet | 48% | 2.09 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 44% | 2.28 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 23% | 4.28 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 23% | 4.28 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 17% | 5.90 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 7% | 13.65 |
| Away clean sheet | 7% | 13.69 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 4% | 25.58 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 2% | 45.81 |