Al Ahly vs El Mokawloon result
1–0 Full time
Al Ahly stats & fixtures · El Mokawloon stats & fixtures
Al Ahly beat El Mokawloon 1–0 in the League Cup (Group Stage - 2) on 2 November 2026. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Al Ahly 58%, the draw 26% and El Mokawloon 16%.
Goals and cards
- 90+3' Goal A. Bencharki (assist Mohamed Hany) Al Ahly
- 90+6' Yellow card Yasser Ibrahim Al Ahly
- 90+6' Yellow card S. Hussein El Mokawloon
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
Called it: Al Ahly to win, 58% before kick-off
- 58%Al Ahly fair odds 1.72
- 26%Draw fair odds 3.83
- 16%El Mokawloon fair odds 6.33
Most likely score 1-1 (12.4%)
Why the Ghost says this
The Ghost expects Al Ahly to score about 0.9 more and this competition has almost no home advantage.
Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.
The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on
Al Ahly
Attack 1.88 · Defence 0.72
Last five: WWDWW, scored 12, conceded 4
El Mokawloon
Attack 1.17 · Defence 0.75
Last five: LWDWW, scored 9, conceded 3
What could swing it
- Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.07× what an average away side does. In the numbers
- Last 3 meetings: Al Ahly won 1, 1 drawn, El Mokawloon won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Low.
Flags and warnings
- Al Ahly has a new coach, L. Ammouta, for its last 8 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
- El Mokawloon has a new coach, Samy Komsan, for its last 7 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces
- Al Ahly attack scores 88% more than average, against El Mokawloon defence, which lets in 25% fewer than average: 1.65 goals (an average side here: 1.17)
- El Mokawloon attack scores 17% more than average, against Al Ahly defence, which lets in 28% fewer than average: 0.92 goals (an average side here: 1.09)
With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Al Ahly 1.75, El Mokawloon 0.82.
Ratings from 69 matches for Al Ahly and 91 for El Mokawloon, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.
What matters
- Al Ahly win 7.1 corners a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
- Al Ahly score 2.2 a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
- El Mokawloon win 3.3 corners a game — 25th percentile in this competition.
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 2.11 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 3.90 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 12% | 8.49 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 9% | 10.97 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 26% | 3.85 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 53% | 1.90 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 74% | 1.35 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 88% | 1.13 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 48% | 2.10 |
| Both teams to score: No | 52% | 1.91 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 9.6
Al Ahly 6.4 · El Mokawloon 3.2
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 8.5 | 60% | 40% |
| 9.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 10.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 11.5 | 27% | 73% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (275 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 1–1 12.4%
- 1–0 12.0%
- 2–0 11.7%
- 2–1 9.6%
- 0–0 9.1%
- 3–0 6.8%
- 3–1 5.6%
- 0–1 4.9%
Form now
Each side's form as of , from its matches up to then — not the form this match was played on.
Al Ahly at home
7–2–1 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.2 per game
- Conceded
- 1.0 per game
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- Corners
- 7.1 per game
- Shots on target
- 6.5 per game
36% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
El Mokawloon away
3–3–4 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.1 per game
- Conceded
- 0.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 4 / 10
- Corners
- 3.3 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.7 per game
27% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Detailed match statistics aren't available for this competition, so corners, shots and cards can't be shown.
Al Ahly vs El Mokawloon head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| El Mokawloon v Al Ahly | 1–1 | |
| El Mokawloon v Al Ahly | 1–3 | |
| Al Ahly v El Mokawloon | 0–3 |
Only 3 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Home +1.5 handicap | 95% | 1.06 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 84% | 1.19 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 84% | 1.19 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 83% | 1.21 |
| Home/Away double chance | 74% | 1.35 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 66% | 1.51 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 58% | 1.72 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 56% | 1.79 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 52% | 1.92 |
| Home clean sheet | 44% | 2.27 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 42% | 2.38 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 42% | 2.38 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 34% | 2.95 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 26% | 3.91 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 20% | 5.06 |
| Away clean sheet | 17% | 5.75 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 16% | 6.33 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 5% | 19.06 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 5% | 20.00 |
No bookmaker prices this competition, so there's nothing to compare the Ghost against.