Wadi Degla vs Zamalek SC result

Goals and cards

1. 23' Yellow card S. Farouk Gaafar Zamalek SC
2. 39' Yellow card M. El Zenary Zamalek SC
3. 89' Goal T. Asiku Wadi Degla

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Zamalek SC to score about 0.3 more and this competition has almost no home advantage. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.07× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last meeting: Wadi Degla won 1, 0 drawn, Zamalek SC won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (15%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Wadi Degla has a new coach, Mostafa Shebeita, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Zamalek SC has a new coach, Motamed Gamal, for its last 9 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Wadi Degla attack scores 20% more than average, against Zamalek SC defence, which lets in 35% fewer than average: 0.92 goals (an average side here: 1.17)
• Zamalek SC attack scores 47% more than average, against Wadi Degla defence, which lets in 29% fewer than average: 1.14 goals (an average side here: 1.09)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Wadi Degla 0.88, Zamalek SC 1.17.

Ratings from 113 matches for Wadi Degla and 70 for Zamalek SC, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Zamalek SC score 1.4 a game — 85th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 2 of Zamalek SC’s last 10.
• Zamalek SC have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.3

Wadi Degla 5.7 · Zamalek SC 3.6

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (277 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 15.0%
2. 0–0 14.6%
3. 0–1 13.3%
4. 1–0 9.6%
5. 0–2 8.8%
6. 1–2 7.8%
7. 2–1 5.8%
8. 2–0 5.0%