Gremio vs Atletico-MG match stats & report

Gremio vs Atletico-MG match statistics

• 24% Ball possession 76%
• 0.56 Expected goals (xG) 1.36
• 6 Total shots 20
• 2 Shots on target 4
• 2 Shots off target 10
• 2 Blocked shots 6
• 4 Shots inside the box 10
• 4 Corners 14
• 15 Fouls 7
• 0 Offsides 1
• 0 Yellow cards 1
• 1 Red cards 0
• 231 Passes 728
• 4 Goalkeeper saves 0

Goals and cards

1. 11' Goal Carlos Vinicius (assist Weverton) Gremio
2. 31' Yellow card Cuello Atletico-MG
3. 47' Goal E. Noriega (assist Joao Pedro) Gremio
4. 90+2' Yellow card Gustavo Martins Gremio
5. 90+5' Red card Gustavo Martins Gremio

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Gremio to score about 0.3 more and playing at home is worth roughly 31% in this competition.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 11396 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.31× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Gremio won 3, 0 drawn, Atletico-MG won 3. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Gremio has a new coach, Renato Gaúcho, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Gremio attack scores 77% more than average, against Atletico-MG defence, which lets in 50% fewer than average: 1.42 goals (an average side here: 1.62)
• Atletico-MG attack scores 77% more than average, against Gremio defence, which lets in 46% fewer than average: 1.18 goals (an average side here: 1.23)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Gremio 1.46, Atletico-MG 1.14.

Ratings from 168 matches for Gremio and 172 for Atletico-MG, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• 6 of the last 6 meetings went over 2.5 goals.
• Gremio score 1.7 a game — 79th percentile in this competition.
• Gremio win 4.6 corners a game — 22nd percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 11.4

Gremio 6.1 · Atletico-MG 5.3

Expected cards: 4.6

Gremio 2.2 · Atletico-MG 2.4

Expected shots on target: 7.3

Gremio 3.6 · Atletico-MG 3.6

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (881 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 14.0%
2. 1–0 9.2%
3. 2–1 9.0%
4. 0–0 9.0%
5. 2–0 7.9%
6. 1–2 7.1%
7. 0–1 6.8%
8. 2–2 5.2%