Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama match stats & report

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama match statistics

• 60% Ball possession 40%
• 2.12 Expected goals (xG) 0.19
• 19 Total shots 6
• 4 Shots on target 1
• 10 Shots off target 4
• 5 Blocked shots 1
• 10 Shots inside the box 4
• 10 Corners 3
• 12 Fouls 7
• 1 Offsides 0
• 2 Yellow cards 2
• 0 Red cards 1
• 612 Passes 382
• 1 Goalkeeper saves 2

Goals and cards

1. 22' Yellow card A. Lescano Vasco DA Gama
2. 24' Goal Mauricio (assist Marlon Freitas) Palmeiras
3. 30' Yellow card A. Saldivia Vasco DA Gama
4. 37' Yellow card Lucas Piton Vasco DA Gama
5. 45+1' Yellow card Lucas Evangelista Palmeiras
6. 67' Yellow card A. Barboza Palmeiras
7. 77' Red card A. Saldivia Vasco DA Gama

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Palmeiras to score about 1.6 more and playing at home is worth roughly 32% in this competition.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Palmeiras won 5, 0 drawn, Vasco DA Gama won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 2-0 (13%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Palmeiras has a new coach, Abel Ferreira, for its last 7 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Palmeiras attack scores 128% more than average, against Vasco DA Gama defence, which lets in 43% fewer than average: 2.12 goals (an average side here: 1.62)
• Vasco DA Gama attack scores 80% more than average, against Palmeiras defence, which lets in 62% fewer than average: 0.84 goals (an average side here: 1.23)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Palmeiras 2.27, Vasco DA Gama 0.68.

Ratings from 174 matches for Palmeiras and 176 for Vasco DA Gama, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Palmeiras score 1.9 a game — 90th percentile in this competition.
• Palmeiras win 7.5 corners a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
• Vasco DA Gama score 1.2 a game — 76th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 11.7

Palmeiras 6.3 · Vasco DA Gama 5.3

Expected cards: 4.0

Palmeiras 1.7 · Vasco DA Gama 2.3

Expected shots on target: 7.6

Palmeiras 5.3 · Vasco DA Gama 2.3

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (881 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 2–0 13.5%
2. 1–0 10.8%
3. 3–0 10.2%
4. 2–1 9.2%
5. 1–1 9.1%
6. 3–1 7.0%
7. 0–0 6.3%
8. 4–0 5.8%