Ittihad Tanger vs CR Khemis Zemamra match stats & report

Ittihad Tanger vs CR Khemis Zemamra match statistics

• 51% Ball possession 49%
• 6 Total shots 14
• 2 Shots on target 3
• 4 Shots off target 11
• 0 Blocked shots 0
• 4 Corners 4
• 1 Yellow cards 2
• 0 Red cards 0

Goals and cards

1. 71' Yellow card Abdel Maali Ittihad Tanger
2. 74' Yellow card james ajako CR Khemis Zemamra
3. 75' Yellow card CR Khemis Zemamra
4. 77' Goal Ittihad Tanger

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and this competition has almost no home advantage.

High confidence — Fitted on 530 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.07× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Ittihad Tanger’s last five moved its expected goals by +2.7%. In the numbers
• CR Khemis Zemamra’s last five moved its expected goals by +0.9%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: Ittihad Tanger won 1, 0 drawn, CR Khemis Zemamra won 3. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• CR Khemis Zemamra has had 3 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• CR Khemis Zemamra’s last five run against its rating: +0.1 a match scored, +0.9 conceded. Weighed as measured on 15,577 matches: +0.9% to its expected goals. In the numbers
• CR Khemis Zemamra has a new coach, Mehdi Mrani Alaoui, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Ittihad Tanger attack scores about the average, against CR Khemis Zemamra defence, which lets in 4% more than average: 1.22 goals (an average side here: 1.15)
• CR Khemis Zemamra attack scores about the average, against Ittihad Tanger defence, which lets in about the average: 1.06 goals (an average side here: 1.08)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Ittihad Tanger 1.23, CR Khemis Zemamra 1.07.

Ratings from 65 matches for Ittihad Tanger and 65 for CR Khemis Zemamra, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Ittihad Tanger score 1.6 a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Ittihad Tanger win 2.5 corners a game — 12th percentile in this competition.
• CR Khemis Zemamra have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected cards: 5.2

Ittihad Tanger 2.8 · CR Khemis Zemamra 2.4

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (109 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 14.2%
2. 1–0 11.3%
3. 0–0 11.2%
4. 0–1 9.4%
5. 2–1 8.3%
6. 2–0 7.7%
7. 1–2 7.0%
8. 0–2 5.8%