Heart Of Midlothian vs Hibernian result

Goals and cards

1. 4' Goal C. Braga (assist C. Miller) Heart Of Midlothian
2. 19' Goal M. Boyle (assist Owen Elding) Hibernian
3. 29' Yellow card J. Kerr Hibernian
4. 31' Yellow card J. Mulligan Hibernian
5. 38' Yellow card J. Altena Heart Of Midlothian
6. 42' Goal J. McGrath Hibernian
7. 73' Yellow card F. Passlack Hibernian
8. 79' Yellow card M. Chaiwa Hibernian

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Heart Of Midlothian to score about 0.5 more and playing at home is worth roughly 19% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 4755 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.00× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Heart Of Midlothian won 4, 0 drawn, Hibernian won 2. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (11%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Hibernian has a new coach, M. Reedijk, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Heart Of Midlothian attack scores 162% more than average, against Hibernian defence, which lets in 64% fewer than average: 1.79 goals (an average side here: 1.89)
• Hibernian attack scores 112% more than average, against Heart Of Midlothian defence, which lets in 65% fewer than average: 1.42 goals (an average side here: 1.89)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Heart Of Midlothian 1.84, Hibernian 1.36.

Ratings from 95 matches for Heart Of Midlothian and 97 for Hibernian, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Heart Of Midlothian score 2.6 a game — 91st percentile in this competition.
• Heart Of Midlothian win 7 corners a game — 89th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 8 of Heart Of Midlothian’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.5

Heart Of Midlothian 6.0 · Hibernian 4.5

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (256 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.5%
2. 2–1 9.4%
3. 1–2 6.9%
4. 2–0 6.9%
5. 2–2 6.4%
6. 1–0 6.1%
7. 3–1 5.8%
8. 0–0 5.4%