Yunnan Yukun vs Dalian Zhixing result

Goals and cards

1. 8' Goal Abdusalam Bunyamin Yunnan Yukun
2. 13' Yellow card Cleber Yunnan Yukun
3. 15' Goal Cleber (assist Abdusalam Bunyamin) Yunnan Yukun
4. 21' Goal P. Delgado (assist F. Acheampong) Dalian Zhixing
5. 28' Yellow card Caio Vinicius Yunnan Yukun
6. 32' Goal Yang Mingrui (assist F. Acheampong) Dalian Zhixing
7. 36' Yellow card Song Yue Dalian Zhixing
8. 48' Goal N. Stanciu Dalian Zhixing
9. 55' Yellow card Feng Boxuan Dalian Zhixing
10. 56' Goal Tsui Wang-Kit (assist A. Ionita II) Yunnan Yukun
11. 59' Yellow card Song Yue Dalian Zhixing
12. 59' Red card Song Yue Dalian Zhixing
13. 61' Yellow card F. Acheampong Dalian Zhixing
14. 65' Red card P. Delgado Dalian Zhixing
15. 78' Goal O. Taty Maritu (assist Duan Liuyu) Yunnan Yukun

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Yunnan Yukun to score about 0.6 more and playing at home is worth roughly 26% in this competition. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 2610 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.26× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: Yunnan Yukun won 2, 1 drawn, Dalian Zhixing won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (10%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Dalian Zhixing has a new coach, Guoxu Li, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Yunnan Yukun attack scores 108% more than average, against Dalian Zhixing defence, which lets in 46% fewer than average: 1.95 goals (an average side here: 1.72)
• Dalian Zhixing attack scores 55% more than average, against Yunnan Yukun defence, which lets in 31% fewer than average: 1.47 goals (an average side here: 1.37)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Yunnan Yukun 2.02, Dalian Zhixing 1.39.

Ratings from 98 matches for Yunnan Yukun and 94 for Dalian Zhixing, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Yunnan Yukun score 2.6 a game — 95th percentile in this competition.
• Dalian Zhixing score 1.5 a game — 78th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of Yunnan Yukun’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 9.8

Yunnan Yukun 5.1 · Dalian Zhixing 4.7

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (244 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 10.5%
2. 2–1 9.4%
3. 2–0 6.7%
4. 2–2 6.5%
5. 1–2 6.5%
6. 3–1 6.3%
7. 1–0 5.4%
8. 3–0 4.5%