FUS Rabat vs Hassania Agadir match stats & report

FUS Rabat vs Hassania Agadir match statistics

• 47% Ball possession 53%
• 9 Total shots 8
• 3 Shots on target 1
• 6 Shots off target 7
• 0 Blocked shots 0
• 5 Corners 1
• 1 Yellow cards 0
• 0 Red cards 0

Goals and cards

1. 41' Goal A. Serrhat (assist M. Bakhkhach) FUS Rabat
2. 90' Yellow card A. Souane FUS Rabat

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and this competition has almost no home advantage.

High confidence — Fitted on 528 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.06× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• FUS Rabat’s last five moved its expected goals by −1.5%. In the numbers
• Hassania Agadir’s last five moved its expected goals by +5.5%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: FUS Rabat won 2, 1 drawn, Hassania Agadir won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• FUS Rabat has had 3 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Hassania Agadir’s last five run against its rating: +1.5 a match scored, +0.5 conceded. Weighed as measured on 15,577 matches: +5.5% to its expected goals. In the numbers
• FUS Rabat has a new coach, Ricardo Formosinho, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Hassania Agadir has a new coach, H. Et-Tair, for its last 2 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• FUS Rabat attack scores 9% more than average, against Hassania Agadir defence, which lets in 8% more than average: 1.36 goals (an average side here: 1.15)
• Hassania Agadir attack scores 9% more than average, against FUS Rabat defence, which lets in 7% fewer than average: 1.11 goals (an average side here: 1.08)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on FUS Rabat 1.29, Hassania Agadir 1.15.

Ratings from 65 matches for FUS Rabat and 67 for Hassania Agadir, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Hassania Agadir score 1.5 a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Hassania Agadir win 1.8 corners a game — 12th percentile in this competition.
• FUS Rabat score 0.7 a game — 19th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected cards: 4.6

FUS Rabat 2.5 · Hassania Agadir 2.0

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (106 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 13.8%
2. 1–0 10.2%
3. 0–0 9.8%
4. 0–1 8.8%
5. 2–1 8.5%
6. 1–2 7.4%
7. 2–0 7.3%
8. 0–2 5.8%