Spain vs Croatia match stats & report
4–1 Full time
Spain beat Croatia 4–1 in the UEFA Nations League (League A - 2) on 29 September 2026. Spain had 64% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Spain 72%, the draw 18% and Croatia 10%.
Spain vs Croatia match statistics
- 64% Ball possession 36%
- 16 Total shots 5
- 7 Shots on target 2
- 6 Shots off target 1
- 3 Blocked shots 2
- 12 Shots inside the box 4
- 6 Corners 2
- 9 Fouls 10
- 5 Offsides 0
- 1 Yellow cards 4
- 0 Red cards 0
- 620 Passes 347
- 1 Goalkeeper saves 3
Goals and cards
- 2' Goal Lamine Yamal (assist Álex Baena) Spain
- 18' Yellow card M. Pongračić Croatia
- 28' Goal D. Beljo (assist I. Perišić) Croatia
- 31' Goal Marc Pubill (assist Lamine Yamal) Spain
- 37' Yellow card P. Sučić Croatia
- 49' Yellow card Álex Baena Spain
- 54' Yellow card M. Pasalic Croatia
- 58' Yellow card J. Mišić Croatia
- 63' Goal Lamine Yamal (assist Pedri) Spain
- 89' Goal N. Williams (assist Mikel Merino) Spain
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 72%Spain fair odds 1.40
- 18%Draw fair odds 5.58
- 10%Croatia fair odds 9.58
Most likely score 2-0 (10.2%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 96% | 1.04 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87% | 1.15 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 1.49 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 45% | 2.20 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 27% | 3.75 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 4% | 24.40 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 13% | 7.65 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 33% | 3.04 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 55% | 1.83 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 73% | 1.36 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 56% | 1.78 |
| Both teams to score: No | 44% | 2.28 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.4
Spain 5.4 · Croatia 3.0
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 72% | 28% |
| 7.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 8.5 | 46% | 54% |
| 9.5 | 34% | 66% |
| 10.5 | 24% | 76% |
Expected cards: 3.2
Spain 1.3 · Croatia 1.9
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| 4.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 5.5 | 11% | 89% |
Expected shots on target: 8.0
Spain 5.2 · Croatia 2.8
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 6.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 7.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 8.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 9.5 | 29% | 71% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4445 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 2–0 10.2%
- 2–1 9.3%
- 3–0 8.6%
- 1–1 8.3%
- 3–1 7.9%
- 1–0 7.0%
- 4–0 5.5%
- 4–1 5.0%
Team news & lineups
Spain
Bench Álex Grimaldo , Iván Fresneda , Aymeric Laporte , Josep Martínez , Mikel Merino , Víctor Muñoz , Dani Olmo , Pedri , David Raya , Rodri , Ferran Torres , N. Williams
Croatia
Bench L. Vušković , N. Vlašić , L. Sučić , I. Pandur , L. Modrić , A. Kramarić , D. Kotarski , K. Jakic , F. Ivanović , M. Baturina , Mario Pašalić , Ante Budimir
Form guide
Spain at home
6–4–0 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 2.0 per game
- Conceded
- 0.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 6 / 10
- Corners
- 7.2 per game
- Shots on target
- 8.0 per game
20% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Croatia away
4–1–4 in 9 matches
- Scored
- 1.4 per game
- Conceded
- 1.9 per game
- Clean sheets
- 2 / 9
- Corners
- 3.5 per game
- Shots on target
- 3.8 per game
23% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 9 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Spain vs Croatia head-to-head
| Date | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|
| Spain v Croatia | 3–0 | |
| Croatia v Spain | 0–0 | |
| Croatia v Spain | 3–5 | |
| Croatia v Spain | 3–2 | |
| Spain v Croatia | 6–0 |
Only 5 previous meetings on record. The Ghost weights head-to-head lightly — form is a stronger signal.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 23% | 4.29 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 7% | 15.27 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 28% | 3.53 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 28% | 3.53 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 49% | 2.04 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 60% | 1.67 |
| Away clean sheet | 8% | 12.72 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 92% | 1.09 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 90% | 1.12 |
| Home/Away double chance | 82% | 1.22 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 72% | 1.39 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 72% | 1.40 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 47% | 2.14 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 51% | 1.97 |
| Home clean sheet | 40% | 2.50 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 96% | 1.04 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 90% | 1.12 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 10% | 9.58 |
| Away -1.5 handicap | 4% | 28.06 |