Difaa EL Jadida vs UTS Rabat match stats & report

Difaa EL Jadida vs UTS Rabat match statistics

• 53% Ball possession 47%
• 10 Total shots 4
• 3 Shots on target 3
• 7 Shots off target 1
• 0 Blocked shots 0
• 1 Corners 4
• 3 Yellow cards 2
• 0 Red cards 1

Goals and cards

1. 53' Goal Imran Douieb UTS Rabat
2. 55' Yellow card A moulhami Difaa EL Jadida
3. 55' Yellow card Mouad Dahak UTS Rabat
4. 58' Yellow card Abderrazak Ennakouss Difaa EL Jadida
5. 60' Yellow card Mehdi Ashabi UTS Rabat
6. 67' Penalty scored Abderrazak Ennakouss Difaa EL Jadida
7. 90+4' Red card Omar Arjoune UTS Rabat
8. 90+25' Yellow card Difaa EL Jadida

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and this competition has almost no home advantage.

High confidence — Fitted on 526 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.07× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Difaa EL Jadida’s last five moved its expected goals by +1.0%. In the numbers
• UTS Rabat’s last five moved its expected goals by +2.0%. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: Difaa EL Jadida won 3, 1 drawn, UTS Rabat won 0. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (14%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Difaa EL Jadida’s last five run against its rating: +0.5 a match scored, +1.4 conceded. Weighed as measured on 15,577 matches: +1.0% to its expected goals. In the numbers
• Difaa EL Jadida has a new coach, Ricardo Chéu, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• UTS Rabat has a new coach, Gugliermo Arena, for its last 4 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Difaa EL Jadida attack scores 14% more than average, against UTS Rabat defence, which lets in about the average: 1.29 goals (an average side here: 1.16)
• UTS Rabat attack scores about the average, against Difaa EL Jadida defence, which lets in 13% more than average: 1.20 goals (an average side here: 1.09)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Difaa EL Jadida 1.25, UTS Rabat 1.21.

Ratings from 65 matches for Difaa EL Jadida and 67 for UTS Rabat, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Difaa EL Jadida score 1.5 a game — 88th percentile in this competition.
• Difaa EL Jadida have kept 1 clean sheet in 10.
• Both teams have scored in 8 of Difaa EL Jadida’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected cards: 5.3

Difaa EL Jadida 2.9 · UTS Rabat 2.4

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (106 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 13.8%
2. 0–0 9.7%
3. 1–0 9.6%
4. 0–1 9.2%
5. 2–1 8.2%
6. 1–2 7.9%
7. 2–0 6.8%
8. 0–2 6.4%