Ethiopia vs Senegal match stats & report
0–1 Full time
Ethiopia lost to Senegal 0–1 in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (Group Stage - 2) on 29 September 2026. Senegal had 61% of the ball. Before kick-off the Ghost gave Ethiopia 4%, the draw 15% and Senegal 81%.
Ethiopia vs Senegal match statistics
- 39% Ball possession 61%
- 11 Total shots 7
- 1 Shots on target 3
- 4 Shots off target 3
- 6 Blocked shots 1
- 5 Shots inside the box 4
- 5 Corners 2
- 16 Fouls 7
- 7 Offsides 0
- 1 Yellow cards 4
- 0 Red cards 0
- 290 Passes 470
- 2 Goalkeeper saves 1
Goals and cards
- 11' Goal I. Mbaye (assist N. Jackson) Senegal
- 19' Yellow card P. Gueye Senegal
- 48' Yellow card M. Sarr Senegal
- 70' Yellow card I. Gueye Senegal
- 89' Yellow card L. Sy Senegal
- 90' Yellow card Ethiopia
The Ghost's pre-match prediction
- 4%Ethiopia fair odds 23.73
- 15%Draw fair odds 6.62
- 81%Senegal fair odds 1.24
Most likely score 0-2 (16.7%)
Over/under goals & BTTS prediction
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 goals | 94% | 1.07 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 1.27 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 1.82 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 3.07 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 16% | 6.06 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 6% | 15.61 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21% | 4.76 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 45% | 2.22 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 67% | 1.48 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 84% | 1.20 |
| Both teams to score: Yes | 33% | 2.99 |
| Both teams to score: No | 67% | 1.50 |
Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.
Corners, cards & shots prediction
Expected corners: 8.3
Ethiopia 3.1 · Senegal 5.2
| Total corners | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 7.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 8.5 | 44% | 56% |
| 9.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 10.5 | 22% | 78% |
Expected cards: 3.3
Ethiopia 1.7 · Senegal 1.5
| Total cards | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 4.5 | 23% | 77% |
| 5.5 | 12% | 88% |
Expected shots on target: 7.4
Ethiopia 2.7 · Senegal 4.7
| Total shots on target | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 6.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 7.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 8.5 | 33% | 67% |
| 9.5 | 22% | 78% |
Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (4445 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.
Correct score probabilities
- 0–2 16.7%
- 0–3 13.5%
- 0–1 12.9%
- 0–4 8.2%
- 1–2 7.4%
- 1–1 6.9%
- 0–0 6.4%
- 1–3 6.0%
Team news & lineups
Ethiopia
No lineup published yet.
Senegal
Bench B. Dia , M. Diaw , P. Fall , I. Gueye , K. Koulibaly , D. Thiam , L. Sy , I. Soumaré , P. M. Sarr , M. Sarr , Bara Ndiaye , N. Mendy
Form guide
Ethiopia at home
3–1–1 in 5 matches
- Scored
- 0.8 per game
- Conceded
- 0.4 per game
- Clean sheets
- 3 / 5
- Corners
- 4.5 per game
- Shots on target
- 2.5 per game
0% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Based on 5 matches — treat these numbers lightly.
Senegal away
4–3–3 in 10 matches
- Scored
- 1.4 per game
- Conceded
- 1.2 per game
- Clean sheets
- 5 / 10
- Corners
- 5.0 per game
- Shots on target
- 4.5 per game
21% of their goals arrive after the 75th minute.
Double chance, handicap & team goals
| Market | Ghost | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| Away -1.5 handicap | 59% | 1.70 |
| Away Over 2.5 team goals | 44% | 2.27 |
| Away -0.5 handicap | 81% | 1.24 |
| Away clean sheet | 64% | 1.56 |
| Away Over 1.5 team goals | 70% | 1.43 |
| Away +0.5 handicap | 96% | 1.04 |
| Draw/Away double chance | 96% | 1.04 |
| Away Over 0.5 team goals | 91% | 1.10 |
| Away +1.5 handicap | 99% | 1.01 |
| Home/Away double chance | 85% | 1.18 |
| Home Over 0.5 team goals | 36% | 2.79 |
| Home +1.5 handicap | 41% | 2.43 |
| Home/Draw double chance | 19% | 5.17 |
| Home +0.5 handicap | 19% | 5.17 |
| Home clean sheet | 9% | 11.43 |
| Home Over 1.5 team goals | 7% | 13.58 |
| Home -0.5 handicap | 4% | 23.73 |
| Home Over 2.5 team goals | 1% | 95.45 |
| Home -1.5 handicap | 1% | 111.18 |