Maghreb Fès vs Renaissance Berkane match stats & report

Maghreb Fès vs Renaissance Berkane match statistics

• 51% Ball possession 49%
• 7 Total shots 2
• 4 Shots on target 1
• 3 Shots off target 1
• 0 Blocked shots 0
• 8 Corners 4
• 2 Yellow cards 2
• 0 Red cards 0

Goals and cards

1. 47' Yellow card Youssef Aït Bennasser Renaissance Berkane
2. 75' Yellow card Maghreb Fès
3. 82' Yellow card H. Raji Renaissance Berkane
4. 84' Yellow card Diogo Calila Maghreb Fès

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same and this competition has almost no home advantage. It projects as a tight, low-scoring match.

Low confidence — The Ghost and the market disagree sharply here. Where they have, the result has sided with the market more often than with the Ghost.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.07× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 4 meetings: Maghreb Fès won 0, 1 drawn, Renaissance Berkane won 3. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (15%). Confidence: Low.

Flags and warnings

• Maghreb Fès has a new coach, Rui Almeida, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers
• Renaissance Berkane has a new coach, Bubista, for its last match. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Maghreb Fès attack scores 12% more than average, against Renaissance Berkane defence, which lets in 22% fewer than average: 1.01 goals (an average side here: 1.16)
• Renaissance Berkane attack scores 21% more than average, against Maghreb Fès defence, which lets in 23% fewer than average: 1.02 goals (an average side here: 1.09)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Maghreb Fès 1.01, Renaissance Berkane 1.08.

Ratings from 64 matches for Maghreb Fès and 63 for Renaissance Berkane, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Renaissance Berkane win 4 corners a game — 94th percentile in this competition.
• Maghreb Fès win 6 corners a game — 81st percentile in this competition.
• Renaissance Berkane have kept 6 clean sheets in 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected cards: 4.6

Maghreb Fès 2.2 · Renaissance Berkane 2.4

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (107 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 14.8%
2. 0–0 13.7%
3. 0–1 12.1%
4. 1–0 11.1%
5. 1–2 7.3%
6. 0–2 7.2%
7. 2–1 6.8%
8. 2–0 6.3%