Hortaleza vs Sevilla result

Goals and cards

1. 18' Yellow card Hortaleza
2. 24' Goal Robbie Ure (assist A. Gonzalez) Sevilla
3. 35' Yellow card N. Guillen Sevilla
4. 38' Yellow card Sevilla
5. 38' Yellow card Hortaleza
6. 40' Penalty scored Peque Fernández Sevilla
7. 55' Yellow card Hortaleza
8. 56' Goal R. Vargas Sevilla

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Sevilla to score about 3.9 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 26747 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Hortaleza has had 15 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 0-4 (12%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• Sevilla has a new coach, Luis García, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Hortaleza attack scores 10% less than average, against Sevilla defence, which lets in 54% fewer than average: 0.72 goals (an average side here: 1.74)
• Sevilla attack scores 124% more than average, against Hortaleza defence, which lets in 40% more than average: 4.13 goals (an average side here: 1.32)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Hortaleza 0.45, Sevilla 4.35.

Ratings from 2 matches for Hortaleza and 125 for Sevilla, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Sevilla win 2.8 corners a game — 11th percentile in this competition.
• Sevilla score 1.7 a game — 87th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 7 of Sevilla’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–4 12.3%
2. 0–3 11.2%
3. 0–5 10.8%
4. 0–6 7.9%
5. 0–2 7.6%
6. 1–4 5.5%
7. 1–3 5.0%
8. 0–7 5.0%