Auriense vs Deportivo La Coruna result

Goals and cards

1. 8' Yellow card Auriense
2. 45' Goal Jonathan Asp Jensen (assist Kevin Sánchez) Deportivo La Coruna
3. 57' Goal Jonathan Asp Jensen Deportivo La Coruna
4. 74' Yellow card Auriense
5. 85' Goal Luismi Cruz Deportivo La Coruna

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Deportivo La Coruna to score about 3.5 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 26747 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Auriense has had 20 more days of rest. Measured: no effect the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 0-3 (13%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Auriense attack scores 17% less than average, against Deportivo La Coruna defence, which lets in 55% fewer than average: 0.65 goals (an average side here: 1.74)
• Deportivo La Coruna attack scores 100% more than average, against Auriense defence, which lets in 40% more than average: 3.68 goals (an average side here: 1.32)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Auriense 0.41, Deportivo La Coruna 3.90.

Ratings from 2 matches for Auriense and 131 for Deportivo La Coruna, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Deportivo La Coruna win 5.2 corners a game — 84th percentile in this competition.
• Deportivo La Coruna score 1.4 a game — 69th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–3 13.3%
2. 0–4 13.0%
3. 0–5 10.2%
4. 0–2 10.2%
5. 0–6 6.6%
6. 1–3 5.4%
7. 1–4 5.3%
8. 0–1 4.9%