Everton vs Newcastle match stats & report

Everton vs Newcastle match statistics

• 44% Ball possession 56%
• 1.88 Expected goals (xG) 2.17
• 11 Total shots 29
• 5 Shots on target 10
• 2 Shots off target 10
• 4 Blocked shots 9
• 7 Shots inside the box 20
• 4 Corners 10
• 18 Fouls 15
• 0 Offsides 1
• 5 Yellow cards 3
• 0 Red cards 0
• 333 Passes 423
• 9 Goalkeeper saves 2

Goals and cards

1. 34' Goal James Garner (assist H. Hackney) Everton
2. 45' Goal H. Hackney (assist T. Barry) Everton
3. 60' Yellow card H. Hackney Everton
4. 69' Goal T. Barry (assist K. Dewsbury-Hall) Everton
5. 74' Yellow card K. Dewsbury-Hall Everton
6. 81' Yellow card V. Mykolenko Everton
7. 81' Yellow card F. Schär Newcastle
8. 88' Goal D. Burn (assist J. Willock) Newcastle
9. 89' Yellow card J. Pickford Everton
10. 89' Yellow card D. Burn Newcastle
11. 89' Yellow card Joelinton Newcastle
12. 89' Yellow card J. Tarkowski Everton

Why the Ghost says this

The two sides are expected to score about the same. It projects as a high-scoring match.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 30568 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.20× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last 6 meetings: Everton won 3, 2 drawn, Newcastle won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 1-1 (12%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

• Everton has a new coach, D. Moyes, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Everton attack scores 166% more than average, against Newcastle defence, which lets in 71% fewer than average: 1.56 goals (an average side here: 1.99)
• Newcastle attack scores 268% more than average, against Everton defence, which lets in 73% fewer than average: 1.68 goals (an average side here: 1.67)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Everton 1.54, Newcastle 1.70.

Ratings from 125 matches for Everton and 137 for Newcastle, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Newcastle win 7.6 corners a game — 100th percentile in this competition.
• Everton win 4 corners a game — 11th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Corners, cards & shots prediction

Expected corners: 10.9

Everton 5.3 · Newcastle 5.6

Forecast from each side's recent matches in this competition (2245 matches fitted). Shown for reading, never published as a call on the Ghost Record.

Correct score probabilities

1. 1–1 11.6%
2. 1–2 8.7%
3. 2–1 7.9%
4. 2–2 6.7%
5. 0–2 5.7%
6. 0–1 5.3%
7. 0–0 5.3%
8. 1–3 4.9%