Gloria Bistriţa vs FCSB result

Goals and cards

1. 23' Goal A. Bradu Gloria Bistriţa
2. 44' Yellow card D. Batubinsika FCSB
3. 45+1' Yellow card B. Cavar Gloria Bistriţa
4. 71' Yellow card Gloria Bistriţa

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects FCSB to score about 1.4 more. It projects as a high-scoring match.

High confidence — Fitted on 6192 matches, and close to what the market implies.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.27× what an average away side does. In the numbers
• Last meeting: Gloria Bistriţa won 0, 0 drawn, FCSB won 1. Measured over 32,101 repeat meetings, the last one tells almost nothing the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

Most likely score 0-2 (10%). Confidence: High.

Flags and warnings

• FCSB has a new coach, L. Reghecampf, for its last 3 matches. Measured across 1,050 changes: no bounce or slump the ratings miss. Not in the numbers

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Gloria Bistriţa attack scores 26% more than average, against FCSB defence, which lets in 61% fewer than average: 1.09 goals (an average side here: 2.22)
• FCSB attack scores 137% more than average, against Gloria Bistriţa defence, which lets in 47% fewer than average: 2.21 goals (an average side here: 1.75)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Gloria Bistriţa 0.94, FCSB 2.36.

Ratings from 100 matches for Gloria Bistriţa and 103 for FCSB, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Gloria Bistriţa score 1.1 a game — 18th percentile in this competition.
• FCSB win 4.7 corners a game — 74th percentile in this competition.
• Both teams have scored in 3 of FCSB’s last 10.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–2 10.3%
2. 1–2 9.7%
3. 1–1 9.3%
4. 0–3 8.1%
5. 0–1 7.7%
6. 1–3 7.6%
7. 0–0 4.8%
8. 0–4 4.8%