Conquense vs Castellón match stats & report

Conquense vs Castellón match statistics

• 0 Yellow cards 2
• 0 Red cards 1

Goals and cards

1. 30' Yellow card Conquense
2. 33' Goal Varo García Castellón
3. 37' Goal A. Gala Castellón
4. 40' Yellow card Lucas Alcázar Castellón
5. 53' Red card Martín Conde Castellón
6. 56' Yellow card A. Gala Castellón
7. 61' Yellow card G. Terma Conquense
8. 62' Goal Varo García Castellón
9. 78' Red card M. Koita Conquense

Why the Ghost says this

The Ghost expects Castellón to score about 1.2 more.

Medium confidence — Fitted on 26748 matches.

The Ghost’s brief · what the call rests on

What could swing it

• Home advantage here: an average home side scores 1.32× what an average away side does. In the numbers

Most likely score 0-2 (12%). Confidence: Medium.

Flags and warnings

Nothing unusual behind these numbers.

How they meet · each attack against the defence it faces

• Conquense attack scores 18% more than average, against Castellón defence, which lets in 53% fewer than average: 0.98 goals (an average side here: 1.74)
• Castellón attack scores 119% more than average, against Conquense defence, which lets in 35% fewer than average: 1.88 goals (an average side here: 1.32)

With the model’s final adjustments, the call rests on Conquense 0.85, Castellón 2.00.

Ratings from 107 matches for Conquense and 133 for Castellón, fitted together, so each is measured against the sides actually faced.

What matters

• Castellón win 5.6 corners a game — 92nd percentile in this competition.
• Castellón score 1.7 a game — 87th percentile in this competition.

Over/under goals & BTTS prediction

Every figure comes from the Ghost's score grid. No bookmaker price goes into it.

Correct score probabilities

1. 0–2 11.5%
2. 1–1 11.1%
3. 0–1 10.2%
4. 1–2 9.8%
5. 0–3 7.7%
6. 0–0 7.0%
7. 1–3 6.6%
8. 2–2 4.2%